On Mar 10, 2009, at 1:25 PM, SA wrote:
> "We are in the 15th month of a recession," said Nouriel Roubini, a
> professor at New York University's Stern School of Business, told
> CNBC in a live interview. "Growth is going to be close to zero..."
See, he's still an optimist!
> [I recall some talk about his previous 9% call being not so bad.]
I believe that was me, among others. A 9% unemployment rate is nasty, but it's not consistent with the intense gloom associated with Roubini. If he's marking it up to beyond 10%, that is closer to intense gloom. But "growth close to zero" isn't; -5% or -10% is more like gloom. Me, I think we're going to see -5% for the first half of the year, tending towards 0% later in the year and staying there for some time.