What I'm confused on is the assumption that welfare recipients are actually voting -- or that the poor or who perceive themselves that way or on the edge of poverty are voting.
for owsley:
total pop in 2008: 4600 welfare recipients: 2300 reg voters in 2008: 3510 who actually voted: 1686 voted repub: 1264
wouldn't you have to survey welfare recipients in order to find out how they voted, and not just how the voters voted? At least look at vote correlated with income. In this report, http://www.projectvote.org/images/publications/Reports%20on%20the%20Electorate/Kentucky/Kentucky%20Votes%20Report.pdf
Low income eligible voters have the lowest rate of voter registration: 64% for < $25k, 69% for >25K - <$40k The rest of the income groups register at > 82% with the highest income group registering at 95%.
Similarly, of the voting eligible population, <$25k voters turn out at 33%
Then you have the added problem. In Owlsley, 90% of blacks are food stamps recipients. If you look at how many blacks are on food stamps and then assume a 90% rate of voting D.... then c although, as is often pointed out here, the research shows that even if you got the non-voting pop to vote, the outcomes would largely remain the same.
this would probably be for all the reasons we already know: people don't follow an election and the issues involved at anywhere close to the way we do here at lbo.
I think you can rule out antipathy to obama as a singular issue by looking at historical data. It's pretty much the same rate of voting D. What you also see is a pattern where more Ds in Owsley vote D when the D is southern -- with an increase in absolute numbers for Clinton. Exception is Carter 1976, where less enthusiasm in 76 than 80. *shrug* This would be right after the southern strategy was being solidified, no? i don't follow this much so somebody who does.... meanshile, a wikipedia article on voting trends in kentucky tells me that Kaintuck was never considered part of the solid south? *shrug*
I'm sure a political scientist in Kentucky would have something to say. why not write a few to see what they've said?
Historically: 2008
R McCain & Palin 1,279 75.9%
D Obama & Biden 381 22.6%
2004
R Bush & Cheney 1,558 77.9%
D Kerry & Edwards 430 21.5%
2000
R Bush & Cheney 1,466 80.3%
D Gore & Lieberman 339 18.6%
1996
R Dole 920 53.7%
D Clinton Gore 640 37.4%
Perot 153 8.9
1992
R Bush 1437 61.7
D Clinton 678 29.2
Perot 209 9.0
1988
R Bush 1266 78.6
D Dukakis 345 21.4
1984
R Reagan 1466 79.6
D Mondale 375 20.4
1980
R Reagan 1250 74.1
D Carter 437 25.9
1976
R Ford 1053 77.5
D Carter 305 22.5
At 09:03 PM 11/28/2009, SA wrote:
>So, the NYT has a big story about the rise in food stamp use in the
>recession. It focuses on localities where food stamp use is particularly
>high, and mentions Owsley County, Kentucky, where half of the 4600
>residents receive food stamps. I decided to find out how Owsley County
>voted in the last election.
>
>As I was searching, I discovered that Owsley is actually part of a large
>cluster of extremely poor Eastern Kentucky counties. In fact, according to
>Wikipedia, of the 100 poorest counties in the US by median household
>income, 16 are in this region of Eastern Kentucky. So I looked at the 2008
>voting returns in those 16 counties. Remember, these are counties where
>probably around half of the residents depend for survival on food stamp
>appropriations (not to mention Medicaid, TANF, etc.).