The original San Jose accords were a deal manufactured in Washington courtesy of their ally Arias, and Zelaya signing on to them was the first defeat for progressive forces. Micheletti's stubborness plus support from some in the US along with expensive PR kept a deal from being signed. Elements of the military, the RC Church hierarchy, and the business elite all wanted a deal because Honduras was suffering economically and a deal would in a short time have established again the rule of the Honduran elites. Zelaya will be a lame duck president for a couple of months, a mostly symbolic victory. He wont even have control of the army which would not obey him anyway. By the end of January everything will have gone back to normal. The only hope is that grass roots movements will continue to press for change. The coup leaders get off scot free and the elections run by them in effect will be internationally recognised plus aid will now flow freely to the
military and to the businesses who supported the coup.
We have yet to see the details of the accord but certainly the coup is not punished at all for mounting the coup. They managed to wait long enough that the re-instatement of a plucked and powerless Zelaya, is a bad joke whereas they get everything they wanted and Washington too.
Blog: http://kenthink7.blogspot.com/index.html Blog: http://kencan7.blogspot.com/index.html
--- On Fri, 10/30/09, Doug Henwood <dhenwood at panix.com> wrote:
> From: Doug Henwood <dhenwood at panix.com>
> Subject: [lbo-talk] Honduras
> To: "lbo-talk" <lbo-talk at lbo-talk.org>
> Date: Friday, October 30, 2009, 10:56 AM
> [Greg Grandin, prof of Latin American
> history at NYU (and a frequent guest on Behind the News),
> just sent this around.]
>
> Seems like a deal has been reached in Honduras, though
> still has to be voted on by Congress (see Times story
> below).
>
> Despite the fact that negotiations and compromises bestowed
> some legitimacy to those who carried out the coup -- and
> despite that fact that the question of whether human-rights
> violations committed during the coup will be punished is
> unclear -- on the whole this has to be read as a
> victory for progressive forces:
>
> 1. it was largely popular protests, which contrary to most
> predictions didn't dissipate over time, that prevented the
> coup government from consolidating;
>
> 2. the idea that this was a constitutional transfer of
> power, which if successful would have set a dangerous
> precedent, is revealed to be a lie;
>
> 3. the attempt to justify the coup in the name of
> anti-populism, or anti-chavismo, has failed (along with the
> myth that what was at stake in Honduras had anything to do
> with Venezuela);
>
> 4. the position of the OAS -- and hence the unity of
> progressive governments -- was affirmed (if it had dragged
> on past the November elections, there would have been strong
> pressure for individual governments to recognize the
> results, perhaps leading to splits);
>
> 5. the violence of the coup government, as well as the fact
> that the extended crisis smoked out its less than savory
> supporters like Otto Reich, reveals the lie that there is a
> progressive, or modern conservative alternative to the left
> in most countries;
>
> 6. the militaries and elites of neighboring Central
> American countries have to take from it the lesson that
> preemptive overreactions to the left can, as it has in this
> case, actually result in strengthening the left;
>
> 7. It is a big push back for Republicans (and neo-lib
> Democrats) in the US, who tried to use the crisis to push a
> more conservative US policy in Latin America;
>
> 8. And Honduran social movements go into the next
> government -- probably headed by the candidate from the
> National Party -- with a sense of unity and their own power
> (and elites fractured and chastised), much stronger now than
> they were on June 28. Not sure if the deal reached
> entailed Zelaya renouncing any attempt to push for a
> constitutional assembly -- it probably did -- but social
> movements will continue to advocate for one, which according
> to at least one poll now has majority support (largely
> thanks to the actions of those who most oppose it!).
>
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