[lbo-talk] Demographic composition of the Tea Party

SA s11131978 at gmail.com
Tue Apr 6 08:05:55 PDT 2010


brad bauerly wrote:


>> My guess is that in this poll, "TP support" for many respondents is
>> actually just a contentless token of Republican Party loyalty. They know
>> there's "something Republican" about the TP, and that they're
>> Republicans, so when pressured to call themselves supporters or
>> opponents they call themselves supporters.
>> SA
>>
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> Not so sure, respondents claimed to be independents almost as often as being
> Republicans.

No, that's the other problem with the poll. In canvassing self-described "independents" Gallup didn't screen out "leaners." In any standard poll, roughly 40% will call themselves independents, but when probed further

>25% will admit they lean to one party, with only the remaining <15% being "pure independents" (see link below). And it turns out that the ostensibly independent "leaners" are almost indistinguishable politically from the forthright "partisans." For example, a Republican leaner is as likely always to vote Republican in every election as a Republican partisan.

The fact that Gallup reports 40% of the total sample as independents shows they didn't probe further. Now look at the distribution of partisan affiliation within the "Tea Party" subsample, and compare it to the total sample: In the total sample, Democrats outnumber Republicans. But among "Tea Party" types, it's Republicans who outnumber Democrats, by a *6 to 1* ratio. Now, with that kind of skew, how likely do you think it is that the remaining 43% of supposedly independent TP-folk whom Gallup labels as "independents" are actually independents and not Republican leaners - i.e., Republicans? Especially when one of the TP's major themes is that it's supposedly a revolt against both parties?

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/01/the_myth_of_independents.html

Again, the TP is essentially a movement of affluent Republicans. The fact that some less affluent Republicans express nominal support in polls isn't all that relevant.

SA



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