I'll have a look. Here's what OpenDemocracy had to say:
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The openSecurity verdict: Wednesday's unrest in Kyrgyzstan is widely believed to be the result of a weakening economy combined with poverty and corruption. Last year, the Kyrgyz economy grew by just over two percent, down from eight percent a year earlier. The global economic crisis has hit the country's labourers hardest. Unemployment figures have steadily increased together with the cost of fuel and electricity. A third of the country's inhabitants live below the poverty line and the failure to tackle such endemic problems is according to some analysts the primary reason for instability. The country has also experienced a drop in remittances which accounted for approximately thirty percent of GDP in 2008.
Bakiyev, who came to power five years ago in the Tulip Revolution, has been accused of consolidating his grip on power, jailing opponents and failing to tackle corruption. Hopes for democracy in the country were all but dashed following Bakiyev's ascent to power in 2005. In a report published in 2008, the International Crisis Group said the political system had been transformed into a 'functional one-party state ruled by a small elite, with President Kurmanbek Bakiyev’s family at its core.' Instead of opening up politics, the International Crisis Group accused Bakiyev of creating a 'monopoly over economic and political patronage.' In 2009, the US state department human rights report also documented a pattern of human rights violations including arbitrary killings, torture and detention.
The legitimacy of Bakiyev's rule has also been brought into question.Last years election, in which Bakiyev secured 76 percent of the popular vote, failed to comply with the country's international commitments and widespread forgery was well-documented.
Kyrgyz authorities have been accused by rights groups of heavy-handed tactics and of cracking down on dissenting voices. Activists say rights abuses are systematic, including attacks on political opponents and journalists. On a recent visit to the country, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon called on the government to protect free speech and freedom of press following the closure of an opposition newspaper and other media outlets.
Wednesday’s unrest in the country poses a number of problems for the strategic interests of the US, Russia and China. Located in the heartland of central Asia, Kyrgyzstan plays a pivotal role in efforts to contain the spread of Islamist militancy in the region. The US established a base in the country after it overthrew the Taliban government in Afghanistan in 2001. The country has been a focal point for US-Russian rivalry; last year, the Kyrgyz parliament voted to approve the closure of the US base after securing $2 billion in aid and credit from Russia. Washington later paid $180 million to keep its base active in the area. Last month, US General David Pataeus met with Kyrgyz officials to ensure that the country remains part of its sphere of influence in central Asia.
Given foreign interests in Kyrgyzstan, Bakiyev is likely to hold on to power if China, Russia and the US remain silent on the recent unrest and the country’s human rights track record. Critics of Bakiyev say that US reliance on the Manas air base has meant Bakiyev has felt little pressure to hold free elections and introduce democratic reforms. So far, the repercussions of Wednesday’s violence remain unclear.
So too are the demands of the opposition. Omurbek Tekebayev, the leader of the main opposition party, Ata-Meken, announced on Wednesday that he was negotiating with the president and demanding that he step down, adding that he wants every family in Kyrgyzstan to adopt the philosophy 'freedom or death.' Whether such rhetoric will manifest itself in real change will depend very much on how the international community responds to the crisis in the country. Should the response be a muted one, the country's fate will likely be settled by force and violence.
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http://www.opendemocracy.net/opensecurity/security_briefings/070410