On Thu, Apr 8, 2010 at 2:06 PM, Eric Beck <ersatzdog at gmail.com> wrote:
> On 4/8/10, Chris Doss <lookoverhere1 at yahoo.com> wrote:
>> Anyway, my friend Sean, who works with the lightning speed of the academic (
>> :) ), already has a good rundown of it on his excellent blog:
>> http://seansrussiablog.org/2010/04/08/bye-bye-bakiyev-hello/
>
>
> I'll have a look. Here's what OpenDemocracy had to say:
>
> [...]
>
> The openSecurity verdict: Wednesday's unrest in Kyrgyzstan is widely
> believed to be the result of a weakening economy combined with poverty
> and corruption. Last year, the Kyrgyz economy grew by just over two
> percent, down from eight percent a year earlier. The global economic
> crisis has hit the country's labourers hardest. Unemployment figures
> have steadily increased together with the cost of fuel and
> electricity. A third of the country's inhabitants live below the
> poverty line and the failure to tackle such endemic problems is
> according to some analysts the primary reason for instability. The
> country has also experienced a drop in remittances which accounted for
> approximately thirty percent of GDP in 2008.
>
> Bakiyev, who came to power five years ago in the Tulip Revolution, has
> been accused of consolidating his grip on power, jailing opponents and
> failing to tackle corruption. Hopes for democracy in the country were
> all but dashed following Bakiyev's ascent to power in 2005. In a
> report published in 2008, the International Crisis Group said the
> political system had been transformed into a 'functional one-party
> state ruled by a small elite, with President Kurmanbek Bakiyev’s
> family at its core.' Instead of opening up politics, the International
> Crisis Group accused Bakiyev of creating a 'monopoly over economic and
> political patronage.' In 2009, the US state department human rights
> report also documented a pattern of human rights violations including
> arbitrary killings, torture and detention.
>
> The legitimacy of Bakiyev's rule has also been brought into
> question.Last years election, in which Bakiyev secured 76 percent of
> the popular vote, failed to comply with the country's international
> commitments and widespread forgery was well-documented.
>
> Kyrgyz authorities have been accused by rights groups of heavy-handed
> tactics and of cracking down on dissenting voices. Activists say
> rights abuses are systematic, including attacks on political opponents
> and journalists. On a recent visit to the country, UN Secretary
> General Ban Ki-moon called on the government to protect free speech
> and freedom of press following the closure of an opposition newspaper
> and other media outlets.
>
> Wednesday’s unrest in the country poses a number of problems for the
> strategic interests of the US, Russia and China. Located in the
> heartland of central Asia, Kyrgyzstan plays a pivotal role in efforts
> to contain the spread of Islamist militancy in the region. The US
> established a base in the country after it overthrew the Taliban
> government in Afghanistan in 2001. The country has been a focal point
> for US-Russian rivalry; last year, the Kyrgyz parliament voted to
> approve the closure of the US base after securing $2 billion in aid
> and credit from Russia. Washington later paid $180 million to keep its
> base active in the area. Last month, US General David Pataeus met with
> Kyrgyz officials to ensure that the country remains part of its sphere
> of influence in central Asia.
>
> Given foreign interests in Kyrgyzstan, Bakiyev is likely to hold on to
> power if China, Russia and the US remain silent on the recent unrest
> and the country’s human rights track record. Critics of Bakiyev say
> that US reliance on the Manas air base has meant Bakiyev has felt
> little pressure to hold free elections and introduce democratic
> reforms. So far, the repercussions of Wednesday’s violence remain
> unclear.
>
> So too are the demands of the opposition. Omurbek Tekebayev, the
> leader of the main opposition party, Ata-Meken, announced on Wednesday
> that he was negotiating with the president and demanding that he step
> down, adding that he wants every family in Kyrgyzstan to adopt the
> philosophy 'freedom or death.' Whether such rhetoric will manifest
> itself in real change will depend very much on how the international
> community responds to the crisis in the country. Should the response
> be a muted one, the country's fate will likely be settled by force and
> violence.
>
> [...]
>
> http://www.opendemocracy.net/opensecurity/security_briefings/070410
>
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