On Sun, 21 Feb 2010, SA wrote:
> Wait, I misunderstood your post. No, I don't think the TP will
> particularly help the Republicans pick up more seats than otherwise. But
> I don't think I said they would. I just said they'd push the two parties
> to the right. The Republicans apparently will have no trouble picking up
> lots of seats due to the economy, bailouts, etc., regardless of the TP.
Agreed, the incumbents should always lose in a midterms, especially in a terrible recession with huge unemployment, and esp. when their politics have been so incompetent.
I'm just wondering if the TP might just bite into that pick-up, and lose an appreciable bunch of seats by getting social conservatives nominated that people can't stick. Would that still have the effect of pushing both parties to the right?
It seems possible that the TP could weaken the Republicans over the next two elections in seat count -- and could lose them the presidential election by nominating someone who can't win. It seems like an empirical question.
Michael