> Anyway, Milgram's experiment means almost nothing - it assumes that
> psychiatrists have access to the minds of sections of the population who
> never enter psychiatric asylums... how could they? They were guessing, plain
> and simple. Now, if you put a SINGLE patient in front of them they might
> have a better time of it, no?
Actually, no, they don't. Another example: clinicians' predictions of
dangerous/violent behavior in clients on discharge from a mental
hospital is no more accurate than flipping a coin. Really, they're
just pulling these predictions out of their asses. You want to know
who's going to be violent in 5 years? Ignore clinicians and simply
evaluate the past history of violent behavior. You won't be 100%
correct, but you'll do better than the clinicians using their
purportedly keen psychological insight.
Miles