On 11/10/2010 9:29 PM, Marv Gandall wrote:
>> If compromise is motherhood and apple pie, why are the Republicans in this poll opposed to it?
>
> What incentive do they have to compromise? It is the Obama administration which has given way on each occasion
True, but then why do the Democrats in the poll keep favoring compromise?
In nuclear strategy, Paul Nitze used to propound the doctrine of "escalation dominance." If a crisis escalates, and each side fires its weapons, the chain of escalation will eventually reach a rung where one side runs out of weapons. That side will find itself disarmed and lose catastrophically. Knowing this in advance, it will seek to avoid confrontation from the beginning, and will always preemptively concede. I think the Democrats are in the position of the side with fewer weapons. For example, based on the poll I cited, the population seems to contain at least twice as many anti-compromise Republicans as anti-compromise Democrats. In that situation, it may well be prudent for Democrats to concede in advance.
You cite polls showing the popularity of rescinding tax cuts for the rich. Progressives are always citing polls that show the popularity of their issues. There's nothing wrong with the polls, but polls don't tell you how an actual political confrontation will play out. Think about the health care debate. All the polls showed that universal coverage was popular. Obama had won agreements from the lobbies not to oppose the bill. Major Republican politicians had already endorsed individual insurance mandates (the bill's least popular element) in the past. How could Obama lose?
Well, the Right had more ammunition. They had flesh-and-blood human beings -- not telephone poll respondents -- show up to town halls and yell about death panels. They had propaganda outlets with millions of views and listeners yelling about socialism. The popularity of Obama's reform -- which was originally high -- plummeted in the polls. Moderate Democrats started wavering and demanding concessions. The concessions sparked outrage from numerically few but vocal liberals. The bill seemed to be in deep trouble. The Right smelled blood in the water and refused all compromise. Etc. In the end, the bill passed but health reform -- Obama's greatest "accomplishment" -- is now a major political liability.
My real point about Obama is that it's not helpful to fulminate about the weakness and betrayals of politicians. The fault lies not in our stars but in ourselves.
SA