[lbo-talk] China's Future

[Somebody Somebody]

DRR: A much more productive question is, where should China's developmental state go in the future -- i.e. how can it facilitate more democracy, social equity, and ecological investment. This is becoming an urgent necessity, because China is about to become a middle income country (i.e. a per capita GDP greater than $4000). It can't rely on cheap labor and consumer exports anymore, and its internal market is now a significant factor of global demand. Possibly Brazil and Russia might offer some useful models here, at least for the urban regions of China. 

Somebody: I would think other East Asian countries provide the model, as they have hitherto. Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan have all made that transition. On a smaller scale, Hong Kong and Singapore also moved up the value chain to developed status. I don't know why Mark Wain is so confident that China won't be able to make that leap as well. 

Goldman Sachs has predicted that China's per capita GDP will be between $14,000 and $17,000 in 2020, putting it on a par with Taiwan and South Korea today. If this were the case, then China could be a middle income country for only little more than a decade. Their estimate seems a little hopeful to me. On the other hand, in 2000, China's figure was less than India's today (around $1000)!