> anyone who produces oil can conceivably hold access to oil against the
> US in a power-play.
Not if they aren't big enough to make it stick: oil is a global market. Fomenting strife in the Middle East is for-sure part of that package. That's the whole point of taking that power away from a united OPEC. If Saddam's your boy, he can be counted on to step up production when you need it. Or even just the threat of it is useful. That's the policy goal: having someone who isn't Saudi Arabia be big enough to upset the apple cart. It was supposed to be Iran, then not; Iraq was the only one left. And still is.
This is also clearly why a divided Iraq has *never* been on the table: Iraq must play this game as a single entity, or it's not worth it. So you can see just how much these guys give a crap about the Kurds.
Maybe it would help you to look at something that's similar: the Suez and Panama canals. It's not in the US's interest to "control" those sea-lanes; but you can be darn sure that keeping anyone else from closing them to the US's aircraft carriers *is* ...
> In 2003 was Washington afraid of the prospect of a multinational oil
> embargo?
They were as "afraid" of it then as they are today. I use quotes because "afraid" isn't the right word. They simply don't want it to happen. And they are willing to spend "blood and treasure" to keep it from happening. Starting your history in 2003 isn't very productive.
The fact is none of that came to pass: but that doesn't mean it hasn't been a policy objective for 40 years! The last 10 years -- or maybe even since 1992 -- has all just been the aftermath of following that direction.
No new decisions were made in 2003.
What happened in 2003 was Bush said: now is my chance to "fix" this. And he broke it worse, tee-hee. But I bet when he did it, there was a guy in Harlem who secretly said: I wish I'd have had the chance. Because Bill Clinton was dogged for all 8 years of his time in DC by not being able to Make Something Happen in that situation.
He got his in the end, alone, in a spider-hole, but for a while there Saddam really had a string of US Presidents buggered.
/jordan