[lbo-talk] Conclusion of a bet ...

Jordan Hayes jmhayes at j-o-r-d-a-n.com
Sun Dec 18 11:00:11 PST 2011

It's hard to believe that it's been 10 years on this, but some of you long-time LBO-Talk members (and those of you who have read the archives since then) may recall that shortly after 9/11 Max suggested a barroom bet that the "war on terror" (specifically the military action) would "succeed" if we didn't have anymore significant 9/11-style terror attacks.

Many threads ensued, but this is probably the best summary:


I think it was a cynical bluff, but Michael Pollak suggested in response:



>> I'm willing to bet that fewer people will die of as a result
>> of Islamic-hued terrorism inside the continental US in the
>> next 10 years than will be struck by lightning.

At the time I thought it was a brilliant comeback, and although I certainly agreed with Michael, I thought it would be fun to take the other side of the bet because ... well *someone* should! We agreed off-list to each ironically purchase a $100 (face value; $50 actual cost) "Patriot Bond" and whoever wins the bet gets the other's bond. The Patriot Bond is identical to a "normal" EE Series bond except you get to brag that you bought it in order to support the wars. Get it?

Well, here we are, 10 years on ... and what with yesterday being the "final day" of the Iraq occupation, I thought it would be fun to announce the result.

Can anyone guess the outcome?


ps: those bonds are each worth about $67.68 today; interest rates have been, um, low ...

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