Even if september isn't the 'correct prediction,' the nasty domestic situation here, plus the 2012 election, plus the way the Arab Spring is being ignored/spun in the media, means that there is a very strong and plausible rationale and process for Obama to go along with, or 'greenlight' something so stupid as an attack on Israel.
Plus, from what you say, and what little I know, the political situation in Israel is increasingly ideological, i.e. unmoored from the facts on the ground, especially with Netanyahu.
It seems eminently credible for 'something' to happen in the next few months, or prior to Nov 2012, that will put us at war with Iran. Such a war would basically allow what little vestiges of american democracy still extant to be destroyed, a reinstatement of the draft, to man defenses of the Afghan and Iraqi borders with Iran.
The bottom line, if you ask me, is that America is getting weaker as time passes, and this logic, similar to Imperial Japan and Nazi Germany, makes war now more 'winnable' than war later, 5, 10, 15 years. Especially if you consider the position China, Russia, and Iran will hold at those times.
---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: "Chuck Grimes" <c123grimes at att.net> To: <lbo-talk at lbo-talk.org> Date: Sat, 23 Jul 2011 16:05:26 -0700 Subject: [lbo-talk] Baer warning
And his abhorrence of Netanyahu is not uncommon in the Israeli security establishment. ... 12 of the 18 living ex-chiefs of Israel's two security agencies (Mossad and Shin Bet), are "either actively opposing Netanyahu's stances or have spoken out against them". Of the remaining six, two are current ministers in Netanyahu government, leaving a grand total of four out of 18 who independently support the prime minister.... (ouoted various newspaper accounts)
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Gar Lipow wonders:
``An alternative explanation is this is being put out there as leverage. But leverage by whom against whom?''
The above hints at where there is resistance within the US government. That resistance comes from some of the Pentagon and evidently within the CIA. This speculation is somewhat confirmed by the links below.
I missed this thread earlier this week, because I was sick of Israel, especially with respect to Iran.
I just read the links to Robert Baer's warnings. Here is the shortest written link back:
http://politicalcorrection.org/fpmatters/201107150010
It predicts that Iran would fight back with its own version of special-irregular forces mounting attacks in Basara, Baghdad, and the US fleet, and also through Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Below is a link to the original radio broadcast:
http://ianmasters.com/sites/default/files/mp3/bbriefing_2011_07_12a_robert_baer.mp3
I've got no comment, except that Israel (rightwing) has a special knack for fucking up bad: the Gaza atrocity, the Flotilla attack, and so on. Even this year's flotilla destruction was a fuck up. Commandos sabotage boats in a Turkish port, and the Greek government stops all but one boat, in an illegal quarantine. This is really pushing hard on the wrong people. I was waiting for Israel to start something with Egypt.
Is this threat credible? I am prone to hysteria, but try to exercise some control until the third martinis. This time it might be. Israel and the US keep bringing this up year after year going back to the Clinton administration(?). Like Iraq, one day it might come true.
I think those past threats were used as a diplomatic devices to keep Iran under control. Now I am not so sure. I decided I would write Juan Cole and ask him, so hopefully he will read it and maybe post a blog on it.
CG