[lbo-talk] Bruce Bartlett: Barack Obama as The Democrats' Richard Nixon

Michael Pollak mpollak at panix.com
Thu Jul 28 01:17:33 PDT 2011


[For those who don't know him, BB was one of the modern founders of "supply side" economics -- he was Jack Kemp's economic advisor and ran Jude Wanniski's consulating firm Polyconomics. Then he wrote a book in 2006 criticizing the Bush tax cuts for bankrupting the country -- because even by his standards, they were nuts. Since then he has been ostracized by Republicans and become a symbol of their inability to accept criticism from anyone even on their own side. He is still a economic paleoconservative by our standards, but seems like the voice of reason compared to what passes for that now.]

[I like his brisk sketch of all presidents as betraying their bases. It suggests that's their job.]

http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Columns/2011/07/22/Barack-Obama-The-Democrats-Richard-Nixon.aspx

July 22, 2011

The Fiscal Times

Barack Obama: The Democrats' Richard Nixon?

By BRUCE BARTLETT

There is no question that Barack Obama is one of our most enigmatic

presidents. Despite having published two volumes of memoirs before

being elected president, we really don't know that much about what

makes him tick. The ongoing debate over the deficit and the debt limit

is clarifying what I think he is: a Democratic Richard Nixon.

To explain what I mean, I first have to tell some history.

Democrat Franklin D. Roosevelt was a transformative president, partly

because of his policies but mainly because he presided over the two

most disruptive events of the 20th century: the Great Depression and

World War II.

By the time Dwight Eisenhower took office, people craved stability and

he was determined to give it to them. This angered his fellow

Republicans, who wanted nothing more than to repeal Roosevelt's New

Deal, root and branch. And with control of both the House and Senate in

1953 and 1954, he could have undone a lot of it if he wanted to.

But Eisenhower not only refused to repeal the New Deal, he wouldn't

even let Republicans in Congress cut taxes even though the high World

War II and Korean War rates were in effect. He thought a balanced

budget should take priority. Eisenhower also helped to destroy right

wing hero Joe McCarthy and worked closely with liberals on civil

rights.

Eisenhower's effective liberalism was deeply frustrating to

conservatives. Robert Welch of the John Birch Society even accused him

of being a communist. But after Republicans lost control of Congress in

1954, he was the only game in town for them.

By 1964, conservatives got control of the GOP's nominating process and

put forward one of their own, Barry Goldwater, to complete the

unfinished work of repealing the New Deal that Eisenhower refused to

do. But he lost in a landslide to Lyndon Johnson, who quickly

capitalized on his victory by doubling down on the New Deal with the

Great Society.

Although Johnson was done in by Vietnam, his domestic liberalism was as

popular in 1968 as the New Deal had been in 1952. Nevertheless,

conservatives deluded themselves that Nixon would repeal the Great

Society. But just as Eisenhower cemented the New Deal in place, Nixon

accepted the legitimacy of the Great Society. His goal was to make it

work efficiently and shave off the rough edges. Nixon even expanded the

welfare state by expanding its regulatory reach through the

Environmental Protection Agency and other new government agencies.

Conservatives were infuriated by Nixon's betrayal, but lacking control

of Congress they were stuck with him just as they had been with

Eisenhower. Not very many were upset when Watergate pushed Nixon out of

office.

Conservatives finally got the president they had always hoped for when

Ronald Reagan was elected in 1980. But by then, key New Deal/Great

Society programs like Social Security and Medicare were so deeply

embedded in government and society that he never lifted a finger to

dismantle them. Reagan even raised taxes 11 times to keep them funded.

Liberals initially viewed Bill Clinton the same way conservatives

viewed Eisenhower - as a liberator who would reverse the awful policies

of his two predecessors. But almost immediately, Clinton decided that

deficit reduction would be the first order of business in his

administration. His promised middle class tax cut and economic stimulus

were abandoned.

By 1995, Clinton was working with Republicans to dismantle welfare. In

1997, he supported a cut in the capital gains tax. As the benefits of

his 1993 deficit reduction package took effect, budget deficits

disappeared and we had the first significant surpluses in memory. Yet

Clinton steadfastly refused to spend any of the flood of revenues

coming into the Treasury, hording them like a latter day Midas. In the

end, his administration was even more conservative than Eisenhower's on

fiscal policy.

And just as pent-up liberal aspirations exploded in the 1960s with

spending for every pet project green lighted, so too the fiscal

conservatism of the Clinton years led to an explosion of tax cuts under

George W. Bush, who supported every one that came down the pike. The

result was the same as it was with Johnson: massive federal deficits

and a tanking economy.

Thus Obama took office under roughly the same political and economic

circumstances that Nixon did in 1968 except in a mirror opposite way.

Instead of being forced to manage a slew of new liberal spending

programs, as Nixon did, Obama had to cope with a revenue structure that

had been decimated by Republicans.

Liberals hoped that Obama would overturn conservative policies and

launch a new era of government activism. Although Republicans routinely

accuse him of being a socialist, an honest examination of his

presidency must conclude that he has in fact been moderately

conservative to exactly the same degree that Nixon was moderately

liberal.

Here are a few examples of Obama's effective conservatism:

* His stimulus bill was half the size that his advisers thought

necessary;

* He continued Bush's war and national security policies without

change and even retained Bush's defense secretary;

* He put forward a health plan almost identical to those that had

been supported by Republicans such as Mitt Romney in the recent

past, pointedly rejecting the single-payer option favored by

liberals;

* He caved to conservative demands that the Bush tax cuts be extended

without getting any quid pro quo whatsoever;

* And in the past few weeks he has supported deficit reductions that

go far beyond those offered by Republicans.

Further evidence can be found in the writings of outspoken liberals

such as New York Times columnist Paul Krugman, who has condemned

Obama's conservatism ever since he took office.

Conservatives will, of course, scoff at the idea of Obama being any

sort of conservative, just as liberals scoffed at Nixon being any kind

of liberal. But with the benefit of historical hindsight, it's now

obvious that Nixon was indeed a moderate liberal in practice. And with

the passage of time, it's increasingly obvious that Clinton was

essentially an Eisenhower Republican. It may take 20 years before

Obama's basic conservatism is widely accepted as well, but it's a fact.



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