[lbo-talk] catastrophy

Gar Lipow gar.lipow at gmail.com
Wed Mar 16 18:36:21 PDT 2011


On Wed, Mar 16, 2011 at 4:39 PM, Wojtek S <wsoko52 at gmail.com> wrote:
> [WS:]  Again, thanks Gar for a link to the Jacobson paper. It was
> quite useful.  I have two follow up questions, though.
>
> First, I often heard the argument that wind turbines are quite bad for
> the wild bird populations, yet Jacobson does not mention it in his
> rather brief section on environmental impact.  How much truth is in
> this claim?

Some but greatly exaggerated. There was on set of turbines at the Altamont Wind pass that killed Golden Eagles. That was due to really bad location (at a key migration point) bad turbine placement and bad tower design. They have now got it to the point where your average wind farm kill fewer birds than your average outdoor cat, and avoids killing endangered birds entirely. However wind farms do kill a substantial number of bats (fewer than other things we tolerate like tall buildings, but still subtantial). In the end though I think you will find that wind still ranks as the least harmful electricity source. Even if I'm wrong about that I doubt this factor would move it anywhere but to the second least harmful. In general I trust Jacobson much more on what can be done than on this kind of environmental ranking - which is highly subjective anyway. When you combine different harms into a single rank the way he does, how much of one harm equals how much of another is very much a judgement call. I would still consider this ranking somewhat useful, but very very approximate in any case.
>
> Second, some time ago you mention another option - high altitude wind
> turbines (suspended by propellers.)  Jacobson does not seem to mention
> this option.  Any idea why and how would this change his argument
> about the need for a backup hydro system?

1) Jacobson does not mention this because we don't know it will every work. Remember when I mentioned it I did not advocate deployment. Since proof-of-concept have flown successfully for brief periods, I advocated funding first a fully funcitional scale prototype that would stay in the air for months at a time if it worked. Then if it worked a full scale commericial prototype. Only if that worked would suggest trying to build an industry. Everything in Jacobson's list has at least been demonstrated in full scale working commercial prototype.

2) I think you could get by with less hydro backup, but not none. Wind turbines on the ground average 30% to 45% of capacity. Flying wind turbines would average 60% to 90% capacity. That still needs some sort of storage or backup, but not as much. maybe a great deal less. I don't think anyone will bother to do more than back-of-napkin calculations on that until they see flying wind turbines working. I have seen such calculations and they have said one MW of hydro for every 4 MW of flying wind. You should trust that as much as you trust any back of the envelope calculation, again remembering that flying wind turbines are a concept worth testing, not something we know will work. This is why I mostly don't mention this kind of thing. There are lots of cool potential tech ideas out there I'd enjoy discussing, but if I bring them up, they usually comes back to me months or years later with the "this is a concept, we don't know if works or not" part forgotten.
>
> Wojtek
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>

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