[lbo-talk] Prepare for riots in euro collapse, Foreign Office warns

Jordan Hayes jmhayes at j-o-r-d-a-n.com
Tue Nov 29 11:16:11 PST 2011


Wojtek writes:


>> It's a fairly new project, it was done (at the time) for all
>> the wrong reasons"
>
> True, but the same can be said of many financial institutions
> that eventually became "too big to fall."

I think at this moment, the Euro is not too big to fail. Being TBTF means that some body -- even larger than that which is TBTF -- is commited to seeing TBTF not fail. The ECB -- and Germany in particular -- seems steadfastly to deny being interested in that. There's only one other body that could do it: the US Federal Reserve.


> the stakes are too high for this to be a likely outcome.

I hope you're right, but the trend is in the opposite direction: we've seen the fall of at least three governments in the periphery in this crisis, with more likely on the way; and we're seeing talk of bilaterals between France and Germany which are at odds with helping to ensure the long-term success of the Euro. Yesterday's announcement of the extra-EU "Stability Pact" (because it would "take too long" to get through at Brussels!)

If the two protectors of the Euro aren't all for it, it doesn't seem to have much hope.

Finally: simple mathematics are against them.

Here's some food for thought:

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/11/28/764211/guest-post-thinking-the-unfolding-the-break-up-of-monetary-union/

<summary> However unpleasant the choice may be, there seem to be only two sensible solutions to the current predicaments. The first is economic, fiscal and budgetary union (what many describe as federalism). Each reader can make up his or her mind as to whether this will be politically acceptable to the nations involved, but it is doubtful that there is now sufficient time to implement it (even assuming each nation were democratically to approve of it). The other solution is an organised dismantlement of the euro as we know it and to introduce a dual currency system. </summary>

[...]

/jordan



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