On 2013-07-01, at 6:30 AM, joel schalit wrote:
> I definitely think there is some truth to this. But it's almost important
> to remember that this is the Torygraph. It's a profoundly conservative
> newspaper, aligned with Britain's Conservatives. ..Hollande's Socialists are doing poorly, and ought to be concerned. I
> just think it's important to distinguish between the two issues here.
On 2013-07-01, at 10:00 AM, Wojtek S wrote:
> ...politics today
> is like a steam locomotive - it can go only where the tracks go and it can
> travel only in one direction - the one it was set by the turntable. The
> tracks and the turntable are set by the institutional balance of power and
> the locomotive engineers can only vary is the speed and use the whistle.
> However, it will smash anything that stands in its way.
>
> ...It will continue to be so until there
> is a sea change in the institutional balance of power that will build new
> tracks.
There's not much I would disagree with in either Joel or Wojtek's comments. I would say, though, that E-P has never struck me as your typical Tory hack like Niall Ferguson. He's been strongly against the European austerity program for a long time, and, as we know, proposals to breakup the eurozone to escape the crushing burden of austerity have, as you know, emanated from the left and to the right of the major governing parties, though of course the objectives differ in each case.
I seem to have created the impression that the triumph of the NF and the European right was inevitable. Though the report indicates that trend is currently running in their favour, I don't believe in inevitability, and share Wojtek's respect for the powerful institutional imperatives and constraints which stand in the way of bold changes to the status quo and generally shape politics. I concluded by suggesting that Europe was at a crossroads, and the outcome uncertain:
"The continuing financial and economic crisis, and corresponding rise of the European right-wing parties which have exploited it, have increased the pressure on the traditional governing parties to ease up on austerity, or to effect an even more complete Keynesian turn, to preempt their opponents on the right as well as Syriza in Greece, the sole left-wing party vying for power. Such pressure will likely intensify after the German election is out of the way in September, but it may already be too late to keep the euro bloc intact."
I think we all agree on this, no?