[lbo-talk] tipping and control

shag carpet bomb shag at cleandraws.com
Tue Nov 19 07:59:48 PST 2013


yes. exactly. you see the same anxiety patterns in drivers stuck in backed up traffic. Do I stay in my lane when every other lane looks like it's moving but mine. Cool stuff about why that happens in Tom Vanderbilt's book, Traffic. Turns out that all the moving about from one lane to the next so as to not lose time actually contributes to the back up making it worse,(IIRC). ON that other hand, according to Vanderbilt, it's OK to be a late merger.

http://tomvanderbilt.com/traffic/excerpt/

from Marv Gandall: <>>From Sunday's NY Times: <> <> When we think of self-control, we don’t normally see it in these terms <> — a reasoned decision to wait or not. In fact, the ability to delay <> gratification has traditionally been seen in large part as an issue of <> willpower: Do you have what it takes to wait it out, to choose a later <> — and, presumably, better — reward over an immediate, though not quite <> as good one? Can you forgo a brownie in service of the larger reward <> of losing weight, give up ready cash in favor of a later investment <> payoff? The immediate option is hot; you can taste it, smell it, feel <> it. The long-term choice is far cooler; it’s hard to picture it with <> quite as much color or power. <> <> In psychological terms, the difference is typically seen as a <> dual-system trade-off: On one hand, you have the deliberative, <> reflective, cool system; on the other, the intuitive, reflexive, hot <> system. The less self-control you have, the further off and cooler the <> future becomes and the hotter the immediate present grows. Brownie? <> Yum. <> <> But what if the reality is a little different? What if the ability to <> delay gratification is actually more like the commuter faced with a <> crowded train platform than like a dieter faced with a freshly baked <> treat? A failure of self-control, suggest the University of <> Pennsylvania neuroscientists Joseph W. Kable and Joseph T. McGuire, <> may not be a failure so much as a reasoned response to the uncertainty <> of time: If we’re not quite sure when the train will get there, why <> invest precious time in continuing to wait? <> <> Mr. Kable, who has been working on the psychology and neuroscience of <> decision making for more than a decade, argues that the truth is that <> in real life, as opposed to the lab, we aren’t nearly as sure we’ll <> get our promised reward, or if we do, of when it will come. <> <> “The timing of real-world events is not always so predictable,” he and <> Mr. McGuire write. “Decision makers routinely wait for buses, job <> offers, weight loss and other outcomes characterized by significant <> temporal uncertainty.” Sometimes everything comes just when we expect <> it to, but sometimes even a usually punctual bus breaks down or an <> all-but-certain job offer falls through. <> <> When we set a self-control goal for ourselves, we often have specific <> time frames in mind: I’ll lose a pound a week; a month from now, I’ll <> no longer get cravings for that cigarette; the bus or train will come <> in 10 minutes (and I’ve committed to taking public transportation as <> part of lessening my carbon footprint, thank you very much). <> <> But what happens if our initial estimate is off? The more time passes <> without the expected reward — it’s been 20 minutes and still nothing; <> I’ve been dieting for a week and a half now and still weigh the same — <> the more uncertain the end becomes. Will I ever get my reward? Ever <> lose weight? Ever get on that stupid train? <> <> In this situation, giving up can be a natural — indeed, a rational — <> response to a time frame that wasn’t properly framed to begin with, <> according to a series of new studies conducted by Mr. Kable’s decision <> neuroscience lab at the University of Pennsylvania and published <> inCognition and Psychological Review. <> <> Full: <> http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/17/opinion/sunday/youre-so-self-controlling.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=edit_th_20131117& <> <



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