CBO Says Obamacare Will Raise Wages Tuesday, 04 February 2014 17:58
Apparently a lot of media folks have made such a habit of repeating Republican talking points that they can't see what is right in front of their eyes. The Republicans are touting the fact that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) expects the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to reduce the number of people working.
Guess what? This was one of the motivations for the ACA. It is a feature, not a bug. There are a lot of people who would prefer not to work and would not work if they had some other way to get health care insurance. Imagine a 62 year-old with diabetes and other health conditions. No insurer will touch this person. If they can get insurance at all they are looking at bill that will certainly run well over $10k a year. If this person has a job that provides insurance they will keep it until they qualify for Medicare no matter how much of a struggle it is to go to work each day.
Now with the ACA this person will be able to buy insurance at the same price as anyone else in the age 55-64 age group. If they can get by on their Social Security and prior savings then they may well decide to retire early. They may also qualify for a subsidy in the exchanges. Is this an awful story? You be the judge.
The other likely scenario is the case of a mother with a newly born child. She may want to spend some time at home with her kid, but may have no other way to pay for her health insurance if she leaves her job. The ACA will give her an opportunity to get lower cost insurance (possibly with a subsidy). Again, is a mother taking some off to be with a new born kid a horror story?
Finally, we should be very clear about CBO said<http://www.cbo.gov/publication/45010>on wages since there really is no ambiguity here. It said:
"According to CBO's more detailed analysis, the 1 percent reduction in aggregate compensation that will occur as a result of the ACA corresponds to a reduction of about 1.5 percent to 2.0 percent in hours worked. (p 127)"
If hours fall by 1.5 to 2.0 percent, but compensation falls by 1.0 percent, then compensation per hour rises by 0.5-1.0 percent due to the ACA. If this is bad news for workers then someone must have been enjoying the new found freedoms in Colorado or Washington State too much.
-- Robert Naiman Policy Director Just Foreign Policy www.justforeignpolicy.org naiman at justforeignpolicy.org (202) 448-2898, extension 1