If the talks do break down, which is of course a very real possibility,
> there will almost surely be a new push at the UN in September.
Nabil Shaath threatened exactly that today:
"We committed to not applying to the U.N. agencies and Israel committed to release 104 ... prisoners in four batches ... That was the deal. If Israel breaches it, we will too.
Israel reneging on such a clear, public commitment could boost Palestinian efforts, although presumably not enough to get them anywhere in the Security Council. The ICC is another matter.
Shaath also has this card up his sleeve:
"Nabil Shaath, head of international relations of the West Bank's ruling Fatah movement, said the Palestinians were considering 'going the South African way' and supporting a full boycott of Israel, in addition resuming their push for recognition in international bodies, including the International Criminal Court."
However, a serious breach in negotiations at this point would probably entail a great reduction, if not elimination, of EU and US aid to the PA. That, even more than the final prisoner release, is Abbas' Sword of Damocles. The basis choice facing him, and the PLO whole, is between a resistance strategy - any resistance strategy - and a ton of salaries.
-- "Hige sceal þe heardra, heorte þe cenre, mod sceal þe mare, þe ure mægen lytlað."