[lbo-talk] [Pen-l] A Divide Among Palestinians on a Two-State Solution

Robert Naiman naiman at justforeignpolicy.org
Thu Mar 20 14:30:42 PDT 2014

Well, it depends... The Obama Administration pressured Abbas hard not to go to the UN last year, and threatened to cut off US aid to the PA if he did. But when he did anyway, the Administration lobbied Congress hard - and successfully - not to cut off aid.

So yeah, Abbas is constrained, but he is not totally constrained. And while he faces choices, it is not all or nothing - they could escalate more, without throwing caution to the winds. If Palestine is admitted to the ICC, that could turn out to be a big deal. If the PA escalated its support for BDS, if it pressed Arab and Islamic countries to do the same, that could be a big deal.

On Wed, Mar 19, 2014 at 11:35 AM, Joseph Catron <jncatron at gmail.com> wrote:

> On Wed, Mar 19, 2014 at 6:12 PM, Robert Naiman <
> naiman at justforeignpolicy.org> wrote:
> If the talks do break down, which is of course a very real possibility,
>> there will almost surely be a new push at the UN in September.
> Nabil Shaath threatened exactly that today:
> "We committed to not applying to the U.N. agencies and Israel committed to
> release 104 ... prisoners in four batches ... That was the deal. If Israel
> breaches it, we will too.
> http://nyti.ms/1dpT5EK
> Israel reneging on such a clear, public commitment could boost Palestinian
> efforts, although presumably not enough to get them anywhere in the
> Security Council. The ICC is another matter.
> Shaath also has this card up his sleeve:
> "Nabil Shaath, head of international relations of the West Bank's ruling
> Fatah movement, said the Palestinians were considering 'going the South
> African way' and supporting a full boycott of Israel, in addition resuming
> their push for recognition in international bodies, including the
> International Criminal Court."
> http://on.ft.com/1cZmElE
> However, a serious breach in negotiations at this point would probably
> entail a great reduction, if not elimination, of EU and US aid to the PA.
> That, even more than the final prisoner release, is Abbas' Sword of
> Damocles. The basis choice facing him, and the PLO whole, is between a
> resistance strategy - any resistance strategy - and a ton of salaries.
> --
> "Hige sceal þe heardra, heorte þe cenre, mod sceal þe mare, þe ure mægen
> lytlað."
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-- Robert Naiman Policy Director Just Foreign Policy www.justforeignpolicy.org naiman at justforeignpolicy.org (202) 448-2898, extension 1.

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