So yeah, Abbas is constrained, but he is not totally constrained. And while he faces choices, it is not all or nothing - they could escalate more, without throwing caution to the winds. If Palestine is admitted to the ICC, that could turn out to be a big deal. If the PA escalated its support for BDS, if it pressed Arab and Islamic countries to do the same, that could be a big deal.
On Wed, Mar 19, 2014 at 11:35 AM, Joseph Catron <jncatron at gmail.com> wrote:
> On Wed, Mar 19, 2014 at 6:12 PM, Robert Naiman <
> naiman at justforeignpolicy.org> wrote:
> If the talks do break down, which is of course a very real possibility,
>> there will almost surely be a new push at the UN in September.
> Nabil Shaath threatened exactly that today:
> "We committed to not applying to the U.N. agencies and Israel committed to
> release 104 ... prisoners in four batches ... That was the deal. If Israel
> breaches it, we will too.
> Israel reneging on such a clear, public commitment could boost Palestinian
> efforts, although presumably not enough to get them anywhere in the
> Security Council. The ICC is another matter.
> Shaath also has this card up his sleeve:
> "Nabil Shaath, head of international relations of the West Bank's ruling
> Fatah movement, said the Palestinians were considering 'going the South
> African way' and supporting a full boycott of Israel, in addition resuming
> their push for recognition in international bodies, including the
> International Criminal Court."
> However, a serious breach in negotiations at this point would probably
> entail a great reduction, if not elimination, of EU and US aid to the PA.
> That, even more than the final prisoner release, is Abbas' Sword of
> Damocles. The basis choice facing him, and the PLO whole, is between a
> resistance strategy - any resistance strategy - and a ton of salaries.
> "Hige sceal þe heardra, heorte þe cenre, mod sceal þe mare, þe ure mægen
> pen-l mailing list
> pen-l at lists.csuchico.edu
-- Robert Naiman Policy Director Just Foreign Policy www.justforeignpolicy.org naiman at justforeignpolicy.org (202) 448-2898, extension 1.