[lbo-talk] Uptown Trump

Marv Gandall marvgand2 at gmail.com
Sat Apr 23 10:04:43 PDT 2016


In the media and political establishment’s effort to discredit Trump, he’s been identified as the candidate of the lumpenproletariat - the most poorly educated, low-income, and racist segment of the working class - but the demagogic businessman draws slightly more support from wealthier white Americans, according to this report in the Economist.

To be sure, Trump and his movement aren’t fascist, but it’s based on the same social constituencies which raised fascism to power in more distressed and polarized historical circumstances.

Uptown Trump It is a myth that he owes his support to disaffected blue-collar workers The Economist April 23 2016 (Behind a paywall)

Most analysis of Donald Trump’s support has focused on his appeal to poorer working-class whites, who are assumed to have lost the most from globalisation. His victory in New York was a reminder that his appeal is wider than that. He won the Empire State by such a big margin that he could not help picking up the votes of plenty of richer Republican primary voters. But exit polling from those other state primaries where it is available show that better-paid and better-educated voters have always formed as big a part of Mr Trump’s base as those at the lower end of the scale for income and education.

On average, people earning under $50,000 have made up 29% of the Republican electorate in primary states with exit polls, and 32% of Mr Trump’s voting base. However, those earning over $100,000 have accounted for 37% of the electorate and 34% of his base. In Illinois, for example, he took 46% of those earning under $50,000, but they made up only a quarter of the electorate: he won 39% of those earning over $100,000, who were two-fifths of that primary’s voters. Voters with a high-school education or less have made up 16% of the Republican electorate and a fifth of Mr Trump’s base. College graduates and postgraduates account for 43% of his support.

Mr Trump does not have a majority among wealthy Republicans. But the idea that it is mostly poorer, less-educated voters who are attracted to Mr Trump is a myth. Only 13% of the votes in New York’s Republican primary came from New York City; the vast majority were cast upstate. Statewide data show that he won 52% of those earning under $50,000 and 64% of those earning over $100,000. Mr Trump may seem to be a champion of disaffected blue-collar whites. But there are not enough of them among Republican primary voters to account for his success.

http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21697265-it-myth-he-owes-his-support-disaffected-blue-collar-workers-uptown-trump



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