[lbo-talk] [pen-l] Stark new evidence on how money shapes America's elections

[nathan tankus]

This is a general relationship that is very tight for congressional races
but those are different things from presidential elections. Ferguson would
be the first to tell you that there is a) much more variability in general
elections given how few there are b) there does seem to be a ceiling effect
for money in general elections. In other words, you need money to run a
good campaign but at a certain level more money doesn't mean you can
guarantee yourself the election. Trump in particular has been a god at free
advertisement. His strategy would probably not be workable at a smaller
level.

On Fri, Aug 12, 2016 at 10:48 PM, Marv Gandall <marvgand2 at gmail.com> wrote:


> Forget the polls and follow the money:
>
> “Not only in 2012, but in every election for which the data exists (from
> 1980 to 2012)…the link is clear: when the Democrats spend more than
> Republicans, their candidates win. When Republicans spend more than
> Democrats, they win.”
>
> https://www.ineteconomics.org/ideas-papers/blog/stark-new-
> evidence-on-how-money-shapes-americas-elections
>
> If the pattern holds, Clinton is a shoo-in. Apart from their more
> extensive network of field staff, the Democrats have planned $100 million
> in TV advertising over the next several months compared to a paltry $1
> million so far booked by the Trump campaign:
>
>  http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/team-
> clinton-poised-98-million-ad-blitz-n621741).
>
> However, the ordinary patterns are being upset as political instability
> mounts, and maybe the “Bradley effect” will be sufficient for Trump to
> overcome his polling and spending deficits. I doubt it, but that’s the
> concern expressed here:
>
> https://www.thenation.com/article/are-hillary-clintons-
> strong-poll-numbers-misleading/
>
>
>
>
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-- 
-Nathan Tankus
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