At first glance, Bernie Sanders’s voters in Iowa this week looked a lot like Barack Obama’s from 2008. Both were strongest among young, independent-leaning, liberal men.
Yet with the actual results of the Democratic caucuses in and counted, it is clear that Mr. Sanders’s coalition is very different.
Oddly, Hillary Clinton lost in some of the few places where she did well in her bid for the presidential nomination in 2008, while Mr. Sanders lost some of Mr. Obama’s strongest areas.
He even ran behind Mr. Obama in Iowa’s liberal college towns, even though Mr. Sanders benefited from a stupendous 84-13 point victory among those aged 17 to 29. (You can take part in the Iowa caucuses if you will be 18 by Election Day.)
The surprising geography of the Iowa caucus results shows just how much the fissures in this year’s race differ from the divides in 2008 — with big consequences for the race.
The big difference is class and income.
In 2008, Mrs. Clinton was pummeled among affluent voters. She lost voters earning more than $100,000 by 41 to 19 percent, according to entrance polls.
This time, she won big among voters making more than $100,000 per year, by 55 to 37 percent.
Mrs. Clinton’s strength among affluent voters is partly because of age: Affluent voters tend to be older, and Mrs. Clinton excels among older voters.
But that’s not the whole explanation: Among voters over age 30, she won those making more than $100,000 by a 31-point margin, more than twice her 14-point lead among those making less.
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But there is a bright side for Mr. Sanders: To some extent, he compensated for his losses among affluent voters by doing best among lower-income voters. He won white voters making less than $50,000 by nine points, 53 to 44 percent. Mr. Obama had lost white voters making less than $50,000 per year by two percentage points in 2008. Mr. Sanders was nearly as competitive as Mr. Obama across rural Iowa. He even won along the border with Nebraska — the relatively conservative, western part of the state that was basically the one place Mrs. Clinton won in 2008.
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Robert Naiman Policy Director Just Foreign Policy www.justforeignpolicy.org naiman at justforeignpolicy.org (202) 448-2898 x1