> On Feb 8, 2016, at 11:17 AM, Robert Naiman <naiman at justforeignpolicy.org> wrote:
>
> http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/05/upshot/iowas-electoral-breakdown-and-the-democratic-divide.html
>
> At first glance, Bernie Sanders’s voters in Iowa this week looked a lot
> like Barack Obama’s from 2008. Both were strongest among young,
> independent-leaning, liberal men.
>
> Yet with the actual results of the Democratic caucuses in and counted, it
> is clear that Mr. Sanders’s coalition is very different.
>
> Oddly, Hillary Clinton lost in some of the few places where she did well in
> her bid for the presidential nomination in 2008, while Mr. Sanders lost
> some of Mr. Obama’s strongest areas.
>
> He even ran behind Mr. Obama in Iowa’s liberal college towns, even though
> Mr. Sanders benefited from a stupendous 84-13 point victory among those
> aged 17 to 29. (You can take part in the Iowa caucuses if you will be 18 by
> Election Day.)
>
> The surprising geography of the Iowa caucus results shows just how much the
> fissures in this year’s race differ from the divides in 2008 — with big
> consequences for the race.
>
> The big difference is class and income.
>
> In 2008, Mrs. Clinton was pummeled among affluent voters. She lost voters
> earning more than $100,000 by 41 to 19 percent, according to entrance polls.
>
> This time, she won big among voters making more than $100,000 per year, by
> 55 to 37 percent.
>
> Mrs. Clinton’s strength among affluent voters is partly because of age:
> Affluent voters tend to be older, and Mrs. Clinton excels among older
> voters.
>
> But that’s not the whole explanation: Among voters over age 30, she won
> those making more than $100,000 by a 31-point margin, more than twice her
> 14-point lead among those making less.
>
> [...]
>
> But there is a bright side for Mr. Sanders: To some extent, he compensated
> for his losses among affluent voters by doing best among lower-income
> voters. He won white voters making less than $50,000 by nine points, 53 to
> 44 percent. Mr. Obama had lost white voters making less than $50,000 per
> year by two percentage points in 2008. Mr. Sanders was nearly as
> competitive as Mr. Obama across rural Iowa. He even won along the border
> with Nebraska — the relatively conservative, western part of the state that
> was basically the one place Mrs. Clinton won in 2008.
>
> [...]
>
> ===
>
> Robert Naiman
> Policy Director
> Just Foreign Policy
> www.justforeignpolicy.org
> naiman at justforeignpolicy.org
> (202) 448-2898 x1
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