[lbo-talk] "Trump vs Deep State" Critique: Quick Summary of My Analysis

David Martin davidtmartin at gmail.com
Mon Feb 20 18:10:42 PST 2017

Hi Everyone,

All of you are "thought leaders" that I admire so please give me feedback on this anlaysis since any and all crticisms are welcome and respected. Thanks! David

My Summary in 3 Short Paragraphs:

We are seeing warfare break out between deep state factions over how to address challenges to US global hegemony (e.g. particularly China but EU and BRICS, more generally) and from global secular stagnation (an unresolved overproduction crisis). One wing wants to integrate Russia to break its growing integration with China (as a rising counter-hegemonic bloc), while unleashing the forces of asset speculation through financial deregulation and tax cuts for the wealthy. The other faction wants to escalate the conflict with Russia to increase demand through higher military budgets (based on big budget items e.g. F-35) and arm sales (particularly to Eastern Europe) -- a military Keysesian solution to the overproduction crisis. This latter faction also sees the route out of global stagnation with demand expansion through social programs and higher wages. That is, one faction in the deep state represents the interests of MIC/global manufacturers/high tech industries, who prefer Keynesian demand solution while the other faction represents the interests of WS and Big Oil in asset inflation/austerity solution.

This latter faction would rather cut losses in Ukraine and Syria to build an alliance with Russia (and gaining access to its vast natural resources), maintain political stability through political repression at home and special operations abroad (i.e. rely less on big budget items), and create the spectacle of defending the working class by attacking corporate offshoring and deporting immigrants (both of which directly threaten the growth model of high tech/global supply chain production). It is no accident that Goldman Sachs and ExxonMobil, not Apple and Ford, are well represented in Trump's cabinet as well as explaining his willingness to attack both Lockheed Martin and Boeing, the nation's major defense contractors.

Trump's political strategy is one of projection: claim to increase jobs for the industrial working class, while actually representing the industries with the least interest in doing so in his cabinet (Global Finance/Big Oil) and promote policies least likely to achieve those goals: financial deregulation and tax cuts for the wealthy. Just like the integratiof of the interests of Wall Street and Big Oil (which is a capital intensive industry producing a highly speculated/financialized commodity, the Military Industrial Complexes and high tech industries' interests have also been integrated to the point they support a Military Keynesian solution to the overproduction crisis by inflating the threat from Russia to increase demand from military spending and promote investment in sci/tech research to spur innovation. The high tech industry also depends on expanding free trade agreements to protect IP and synchronize national policies to manage a global production system. The threats of global hegemonic decline and secular stagnation have intensified the conflict between these interests, and, since these interests are embedded in the deep state, created the conditions necessary for the outbreak of factional warfare between them. One faction executed a coup against the other on Nov. 8, 2016 triggering open rebellion of the other faction against the imposition of a coup government. To frame this factional warfare as the Trump vs the deep state is to not only fundamentally misunderstand the nature of this conflict but to make one an "unwitting agent" of one of the factions...

Thanks! David

P.S. The "Deep State" is not monolithic, does not only represent the Military Industrial Complex but other powerful corporate monopoly interests, maintains networks of covert operatives embedded within the State (e.g. FBI's New York office) as well as within multinational corporations (e.g. Goldman Sachs and ExxonMobil), conducts covert operations both domestically and internationally, and the airing of their dirty linens in public (e.g. releasing an "Intelligence Community Assessment") show the intensity of the conflict and desperation of one faction...

Bonus: My thinking boils down to competition between a rentier/asset inflation/austerity faction vs a productive/military keynesian/demand management (allowing for the expansion of social program/wages) -- one faction wants empire on the cheap to avoid tax increases by flipping Russia and relying on speical ops while imposing austerity and political repression at home and the second wants empire on the expensive by inflating the Russian threat for big budget items military spending, increasing domestic social spending/reducing inequality for political stability and to use regulations to limit financial speculation, address global climate change, and drive investment into innovation and production -- that is, the strategy for US global hegemony of each faction (a goal upon which both factions agree) is reinforced by their strategy for overcoming global secular stagnation and vice versa...

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