stox

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Tue Aug 11 10:51:49 PDT 1998


As I type this, 1:45 pm NYC time, the Dow is off 237 points, with a tick of -938. (The tick is the the number of stocks trading at a price higher than the previous price less the number trading at a price lower than the previous - i.e., the difference between upticks and downticks. -938 is a big negative number.) The proximate cause of the selloff can be gleaned from the following headlines, just grabbed from the Wall Street Journal's web site:


>The Dow industrials tumbled more than 200 points at worst on Tuesday
>amid worries about turmoil in Asian financial markets. The Nasdaq
>composite dropped more than 3% before rebounding a bit.
>* * *
>
>The yen tumbled to an eight-year low against the dollar on Tuesday on a
>weak Japanese economic report and amid doubts about Tokyo's ability to
>rescue struggling banks. China repeated a pledge to maintain the value
>of the yuan, moving to ease worries that the currency will be devalued.
>* * *
>
>Stocks skidded in Asia amid worries about weakness in the yen and other
>regional currencies. The Hong Kong market plummeted 3.6%, and Tokyo's
>Nikkei index dropped 1.4%, its seventh-straight loss.
>* * *
>
>Russian stocks skidded for a second day Tuesday, triggering a brief
>suspension of trading. A top government official tried to ease the panic
>by assuring investors that Moscow is able to cover its debts.
>* * *
>
>Oxford Health reported a wider-than-expected loss of $507.6 million for
>the second quarter. The managed-care company was hit by sizable charges
>and a cash infusion to its New York unit.

This is all very interesting. I think the great U.S. bull market, which will celebrate its 16th birthday this Thursday, may well be on its last legs. Some recovery from here, and maybe even new highs, are possible, but something's changed.

One sign: I'm getting no calls from reporters. In the past, whenever the stock market had swooned enough that my phone started ringing, it was a buy signal. I haven't gotten a single call on this decline. Make of that what you will.

Doug



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