Jerusalem Post
America's decline affects us all
By GERALD M. STEINBERG
(October 15) - Watching a friend flounder is never pleasant, particularly when your own vital interests are at stake. From
Israel, observing the decline of American foreign policy is especially disturbing. The US has never withheld its constructive
criticism of Israel, and in this spirit, it is our obligation to respond in kind.
The Cold War ended 10 years ago, but the pax Americana and "New World Order" that were supposed to come next have
vanished. Instead of an era of democracy, prosperity, and security, warfare and repression around the world is increasing.
The responses, whether in Kosovo, East Timor, or Iraq, are too weak and too late, and the Old World Order, based on war
and terror, is alive and well.
The US is the world's only superpower, in terms of military and economic power, but in the exercise of political and moral
leadership, the Americans continue to disappoint. The Clinton administration lost any claim to moral influence long ago, and
its foreign policy now lurches from one embarrassment to the next.
The disintegration of Russia, the military coup in Pakistan, the failure to ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT),
and the difficulties in gaining approval for the assistance package to implement the agreements between Israel and the
Palestinians, are all manifestations of the disarray in American foreign policy.
While each of these problems are the result of many factors that cannot be blamed on the Americans, strong consistent
moral leadership from Washington could have helped limit the damage. Russia's permanent crisis of disintegration, both
economically and politically, has deepened steadily despite the massive infusion of funds and credits.
Looking for quick results, the US placed all of its bets on the Yeltsin government, rather than supporting institutions and
frameworks that might have built a stronger and more stable framework over time. The clear evidence of corruption and
incompetence was ignored, and the US lost any influence it might have gained in Russia.
In Pakistan, the military coup clearly demonstrates the weakness of the American government's influence in the world.
For weeks, the US government warned against preparations for a military coup, without any impact. Although the Pakistani
military depends on training, funds and military equipment from the US, they felt that they could dismiss the pressure from
Washington without penalty. Having survived one round of sanctions after detonating a series of nuclear bombs last year,
the Pakistani military leadership recognized that the US is not serious. The leaders of the coup can assume that once
again, sanctions will be short-lived.
The weakness of the US government and the Clinton administration was also underlined by the failure to gain ratification of
the CTBT. Substantively, the treaty is of limited importance, and even if eventually implemented, it will not prevent additional
states such as Iran or Iraq from acquiring nuclear weapons, or lead significantly towards nuclear disarmament. (Despite the
claims of the critics, the treaty will also not endanger in any way America's nuclear superiority.)
However, as a symbol, the CTBT is important for international stability and maintenance of the global non-proliferation
regime. The US government pressed hard to gain agreement on the text of this treaty, and has been lobbying other
countries (including Israel) to sign and ratify. If the US Congress rejects ratification, the treaty will die, seriously weakening
other agreements and frameworks to prevent the spread of chemical and nuclear weapons, as well as missiles.
In the Middle East, the hopes for reviving the negotiation process hinge on the implementation of the American guarantees,
particularly to Israel.
Now, as in the past, the US has pledged to compensate and offset Israeli security risks inherent in the peace process. In
implementing the Wye and Sharm e-Sheikh agreements, Israel must relocate military bases, build new roads, and
purchase equipment to monitor safe passages and other sensitive points.
However, the scandals and lack of a clear and consistent message have left the Clinton administration too weak to gain
approval for the overall foreign aid package in Congress. As a result, the entire process, particularly with respect to a
possible agreement with Syria or Israeli unilateral withdrawal from Lebanon, is endangered.
The bad news from Washington does not stop here. Next year, unless the Americans finally pay their dues to the United
Nations, they will lose the right to vote in the General Assembly and various committees. Given the ineffectiveness of the
UN, this may appear to be a minor issue, but it would mark another step in the decline of American influence in the world.
Without American leadership in the UN and other institutions, efforts to restore some measure of civility in the Balkans, in
dealing with the continuing threats from Iraq, or in other unstable regions around the world, will all fail.
As a friend who has often benefited from America's moral and political influence, it is painful for Israel to watch the decline in
Washington. It is long past time for the US to get its act together, and present the moral and substantive leadership that is
necessary.
There is no other candidate for this role - the Europeans want it, but they are too self-absorbed and divided. The most likely
alternative to consistent strong American leadership is insecurity and global chaos.