Burning problem All the world's oil could be used without wrecking the climate says a leading climate analyst.
The world has so little oil left in the ground that it could burn the lot without wrecking the climate, claims a leading British climate analyst.
Michael Grubb, of Imperial College London, was commenting as 160 governments gathered this week for talks in The Hague. These aim to finalise the Kyoto Protocol to cut emissions of greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels such as oil, natural gas and coal.
On Tuesday, the second day of the talks, some oil producing countries demanded compensation for sales they will lose if the Protocol enters into force. "We would lose $25 billion a year by 2010 if the Kyoto cuts are implemented," claimed a senior Saudi official, Mohammed al-Sabban.
But Grubb says the Saudis will be able to sell all the oil they can produce, regardless of the Protocol: "OPEC has nothing to worry about."
"There is simply not enough carbon in conventional oil and gas deposits on their own to get us anywhere near the atmospheric concentrations currently under political discussion," says Grubb.
Coal threat
As oil wells start to empty, global production is expected to decline after 2010 - coincidentally the year the Protocol comes into force. The real threat to the atmosphere, says Grubb, comes from coal reserves and unconventional sources of oil such as shale oils and tar sands that have so far been uneconomic to develop.
Optimists hope the world can keep the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere below 450 parts per million over the coming century. This is 60 per cent above pre-industrial levels.
To do that would require keeping the century's total emissions from burning coal, oil and gas below 630 billion tonnes. But Grubb points out that the total amount of carbon in conventional oil and gas still underground is only around 300 billion tonnes. So these could all safely be burned.
Coal reserves are likely ten times greater, however. And unconventional reserves of oil and gas could contain a further 700 billion tonnes of carbon.
The world's energy industry is at a crossroads, he says. One route forward is the "high-carbon" road of shale oils, tar sands and coal. The other is a "low-carbon" road of wind, solar and other clean energy sources. Saving the atmosphere will require taking the low-carbon road.