platform shoes and bear markets

Jordan Hayes jmhayes at j-o-r-d-a-n.com
Sat May 12 16:58:37 PDT 2001



> Burton Malkiel exposed some technicians to
> some charts he'd randomly generated, and they found their usual
> pennants, double bottoms, and rising wedges anyway.

Why is that surprising? Technical analysis basically says that you can spend your time trying to figure out what's going on, or you can get an aggergate of that information as expressed by all participants in the market itself by simply looking at the price action. Pattern People have just formulatized that into the following: "If a certain sequence of events occurs, a particular group of market participants are likely to have the following reaction to it, and if you're watching for it like I am, you might be able to take advantage of that edge in beating those who are about to repeat history" ... hardly Science, but also not Quackery.

In a sense, real charts are "randomly generated" in that you couldn't predict what the chart would look like before the data gets filled in over time; so what is Burton doing here that the market doesn't already do?

I think you're too quick to dismiss technical analysis.

"My God, you give these monkeys _random_ data and they analyze it!"

Feh.

/jordan



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