Iceland to wean itself off of fossil fuel

[Wojtek Sokolowski]

At 03:18 PM 5/30/2002 -0700, jordan wrote:
>Without violating any of the NDAs I've signed, I'll say that you're
>thinking about this all wrong :-)
>
>In any case, the fossil fuel distribution network is _not anywhere
>near_ zero-cost to run now that it's in place; so just because it's in
>place doesn't mean it couldn't be unseated.  It's messy, slow, very
>expensive, dangerous, and comes with a huge potential liability in the
>form of spills, etc.

Jordan:

  Brian Arthur (_Increasing Returns and Path Dependency_) argues 
otherwise.  In essence his argument is that the existing infrastructure 
significantly reduces transaction costs for new ventures (be it new 
establishments or technological innovation) - which creates "path 
dependence" or a situation where any new addition will resemble what is 
already in place - that holds true for geographical concentration of 
industries (cf. Krugman), or domination of industries by certain products 
(e.g. QWERTY typewriter, VHS video recording system, or Windows operating 
system) - even though they are often technologically inferior to 
alternatives.  There is no reason to believe that gasoline powered 
transportation will be any different.  You need a *major* shock to break 
that path dependence, and I do not see one coming any time soon.

wojtek