> At 03:18 PM 5/30/2002 -0700, jordan wrote:
>> Without violating any of the NDAs I've signed, I'll say that you're
>> thinking about this all wrong :-)
>>
>> <snip>
> Jordan:
> Brian Arthur (_Increasing Returns and Path Dependency_) argues
> otherwise. In essence his argument is that the existing infrastructure
> significantly reduces transaction costs for new ventures (be it new
> establishments or technological innovation) - which creates "path
> dependence" or a situation where any new addition will resemble what is
> already in place - that holds true for geographical concentration of
> industries (cf. Krugman), or domination of industries by certain
> products (e.g. QWERTY typewriter, VHS video recording system, or
> Windows operating system) - even though they are often technologically
> inferior to alternatives. There is no reason to believe that gasoline
> powered transportation will be any different. You need a *major* shock
> to break that path dependence, and I do not see one coming any time
> soon.
>
> wojtek
my last evidence-laden post having been ignored entirely, i return with yet another annoying pile of dreadful, argument-killing evidence on this issue:
from general motors: http://www.gm.com/company/gmability/environment/products/fuel_cells/genh_061301. html
"WASHINGTON (June 13, 2001) — General Motors and General Hydrogen announced a 25-year collaboration today to accelerate the spread of a hydrogen infrastructure, and to speed the introduction of fuel cell vehicles into markets in North America, Europe, Asia and emerging economies.
"The strategic alliance will focus on several key areas, including hydrogen storage, fuel cell vehicle refueling, energy services, advanced materials, power electronics, and electric power production.
"Both companies believe hydrogen is the best choice to power fuel cell vehicles over the long term."
or perhaps this: http://www.gm.com/company/gmability/environment/products/fuel_cells/greenhouse_052102. html
"'The best alternative, however, is to produce hydrogen from renewably generated electricity - e.g. wind power - and use it in a fuel cell. This will essentially eliminate well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions,' says Dr. Erhard Schubert, Co-director of GM's Fuel Cell Activities."
for more, see: http://www.gm.com/company/gmability/environment/products/fuel_cells/index. html
now, what else can this simple google search (which anyone can perform with the use of a web browser) turn up that shows that actually the automotive industry is in the midst of a landmark shift . . . hmmmmmm . . .
this is from two years ago: "[there are] current experimental vehicles such as GM's HydroGen 1, a tiny European minivan that can travel 250 miles on about 16 gallons of liquid hydrogen. [ . . . ]
"Although the hybrid Precept shows promise, McCormick downplays the future role of hybrids and other alternative fuel vehicles that are powered by diesel, methanol or ethanol fuel.
"Fuel cells, he said, are the future and will be in high volume vehicles by the end of the decade. "
some of you heard it here first . . . lbo-talk is on the cutting edge . . . http://detnews.com/2000/autos/0011/19/b01-149745.htm (ok, i know it's the detroit news, but it was a google search and a useful article)
but "what's going on *right now*," you ask?
from this very month! -- http://www.fuelcells.org/fcnews.htm "Honda Starts Crash Testing of FCVs. "Honda has started front and rear collision tests on its FCX-V5 prototype, a speed of 55km/h. The results were encouraging: they confirmed high passenger protection safety during front tests and there was no hydrogen leakage from the high-pressure tank. Honda has said that even more stringent crash tests will follow. The FCX-V5, which is due to be tested on public roads beginning in May, will be subjected to side collision and front offset collision tests."
it looks like, socio-economic theories aside, the trend is toward hydrogen fuel cells.
i hope you find a way to fit that into your big analysis of Life, the Universe, and Energy down the road . . .
if this turns out to be so much crap, i'll eat crow in, oh, eight years. until then, i'd want more than yadda-yadda-yadda about "shocks to path dependence."
jeff