>Maybe it's because these contracts amalgamate the most optimistic (war
>avoided) and the most pessimistic (war drags on a long time) scenarios
>together, along with factoring in the odds of war delayed. Still if there
>is anything to DD's idea that when people lay down money they think more
>clearly about odds, this market is predicting remarkably high odds of
>something going not the administration's way.
Gamblers thinking clearly? That's an idea that wouldn't have occurred to me. Do you know many gamblers? Australia is a nation of gamblers, so much so that every pub has become a casino, bristling with poker machines. I'm pretty sure those poor bastards hunched over the machines laying down money, have not rationally calculated the odds. Gambling is about hoping to beat the odds. There's one born every minute.
Bill Bartlett Bracknell Tas