The author’s insistence that Iraq must have WMD caches somewhere and that the fugitive Hussein may order his guerilla forces (it is strongly implied that Hussein and company are commanding the guerilla effort) to use these weapons is a burning example of this faith.
The essay contains important insights but misses two critical factors:
1.) Time is on the side of the insurgents.
The U.S. does not have 20 years to re-make Iraq in whatever image it wishes. The American people and the soldiers in the field will not tolerate year after year after year of counter-insurgency operation. Yes, it took a decade for opinion on Vietnam to shift to the ‘anti’ column but we’re not living in the 1960’s; things have changed quite a bit in the information and cultural spaces. All the Iraqi guerillas have to do is keep it up for a solid year or two and a crisis will explode domestically in the U.S.
2.) The author almost completely overlooks the population’s role. In his analysis, there are only U.S. forces and guerillas.
There are many, many young men in Iraq. Some of them served in the now dis-banded military, others are simply very young (teens) and jobless.
When they look around and see Americans - at checkpoints, searching homes, sometimes shooting their neighbors or friends or family – they will discover a grim new purpose. The guerilla movement, whatever form it has, can be endlessly re-generated and re-charged by these young men. Like the Vietnamese of the war years (don’t want to stretch the Vietnam war analogy too thin but it is useful) they have a source of psychological strength the Americans, in this context, cannot match: defense of their homes.
And so, even if the Americans are able to follow Dr. Friedman’s suggestions and perform a successful search and destroy mission of guerilla leaders, others will emerge to take their place.
What he fails to understand (or doesn’t acknowledge) is the self-devouring nature of occupation itself. Or, in other words, the troubles arise from the situation the U.S. has placed itself in. Not merely from a The application of more refined technique will only lengthen the duration of the trouble as the population adjusts and re-adjusts again to the counter-insurgency.
There is only one solution, withdrawal, followed by apology and aid. But this is the one thing even the geo-political ‘realists’ of Stratfor are too demure (or debauched) to suggest.
DRM
****************
"All parts should go together without forcing. You must remember that the parts you are reassembling were disassembled by you. Therefore, if you can't get them together again, there must be a reason. By all means, do not use a hammer."
--IBM maintenance manual, 1975
__________________________________ Do you Yahoo!? SBC Yahoo! DSL - Now only $29.95 per month! http://sbc.yahoo.com