Profundity today....and tomorrow...and tomorrow

Bradford DeLong delong at econ.Berkeley.EDU
Mon Mar 31 08:06:07 PST 2003



>I think Plan A was decapitation, or euphemistically,
>"leadership targeting." Going for a knockout in the
>first round, in other words, which leaves you in less
>shape for a longer fight. In this case, the cost was
>using up a lot of smart bombs that take time to replace
>(a third or so of the arsenal is the # I heard).
>This plan jives with the mythology of the war -- just
>get rid of Saddam and everything else falls into place.
>
>Plan B looks to be killing the fanatical military forces
>(Repub guard, 'terrorist' militias), after which everything
>will fall into place. Still mythology.
>
>Plan C would be the carpet bombing, combined with Israeli
>style urban pacification. We're not there yet. Here the
>mythology is that the U.S. could do this an not absorb
>damage in other spheres -- regional instability, more
>terrorism, diplomatic fall-out with allies.
>
>They lose no matter what they do, from this vantage point.
>
>mbs

Plan A was decapitation. Plan B was roll across the border and watch Saddam's regime crumble. Plan C was bribe teh Republican Guard commanders to defect. Plan D was "shock and awe"--bomb Baghdad for one night and watch Saddam fall. Plan E was blitzkrieg--roll up to the gates of Baghdad in a week and then watch Saddam fall.

We're now on Plan F. Plan F is to make the British urban-warfare specialists with their experience in Northern Ireland clear out the Mesopotamian cities south of Baghdad, and wait for the regime to fall. Plan F will be followed by Plan G: wait two months to bring up the big hammer--the tank corps that normal operational planning would have had sitting in the Kuwaiti Desert eating BBQ all along, defeat the Republican Guard in a big battle between Karbala and Baghdad, roll up to the gates of Baghdad, and wait for the regime to fall. Plan G wlll be followed by Plan H: besiege Baghdad while dropping food parcels on it, and watch the citizens of Baghdad slowly starve to death as Saddam's enforcers confiscate teh food drops. Plan H will be follwed by Plan I: fighting house-to-house all the way into central Baghdad...

Brad DeLong



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