And for the other side, my favorite psephologist, Ruy Teixeira:
Public Opinion Watch October 29, 2003 covering polls and related articles from the week October 20-26, 2003
By Ruy Teixeira
The Bush Thud
Princeton Survey Research poll of 1,515 adults for the Pew Research Center, released October 21, 2003 (conducted October 15-19, 2003) Frank Newport, "Two Factors Loom Over 2004 Presidential Election: Unemployment, Loss of International Respect," Gallup Organization, October 21, 2003 American Research Group poll of 1,100 adults, released October 22, 2003 (conducted 18-21, 2003) CBS News poll of 751 adults, released October 22, 2003 (conducted October 20-21, 2003) Princeton Survey Research poll of 1,007 adults for Newsweek, released October 25, 2003 (conducted October 23-24, 2003)
Last week, Public Opinion Watch commented skeptically on reports that Bush's popularity was enjoying a bounce or rally. Those reports didn't seem justified when one looked across the range of data available at the time rather than just at the one poll (Gallup) that did show Bush's approval rating going up.
In the week of October 20-26, four more national polls of adults were released and once again evidence for a Bush bounce seems lacking. Perhaps it's more of a thud. The Pew Research Center poll, covering October 15-19, has Bush's approval rating at 50 percent, down five points from their September 17-22 poll. The American Research Group has his approval rating at 47 percent in an October 18-21 poll, no change from their September poll. And, in the Newsweek poll, conducted October 23-24, Bush's approval rating is now 51 percent, exactly what it was in their last poll on October 9-10.
Only one of these polls, the CBS News poll, has his approval rating going up, increasing from 51 percent in their September 28-October 1 poll to 54 percent in their October 20-21 poll. However, there is no obvious reason to trust this poll over the three others. Indeed, the Pew poll, conducted by the very reputable Princeton Survey Research Associates, has twice the sample size (1,515 to 751) of the CBS News poll, so, if anything, one would be inclined to do the reverse.
Turning to other findings in these polls, the Newsweek poll does find a small increase in Bush's job approval rating on Iraq-up four points to 48 percent-no doubt reflecting the administration's "good news" offensive on Iraq (note, however, that the poll was conducted before the recent wave of terrorist assaults in Baghdad). But that's still twenty-six points down from what it was when troops entered Baghdad in mid-April.
Moreover, 58 percent now think that too much money is being spent on the Iraq operation and 56 percent think that troops should be reduced and some should come home, up seven points since the end of September. The former figure points to a significant political liability: 48 percent now say that the amount of money being spent to rebuild postwar Iraq would make them less likely to vote for Bush in 2004, compared to 28 percent who say it would make them more likely. The poll also shows the economy continuing to top the list of issues that voters say will be very important to them in the next election. Voters' views on the economy, of course, continue to be extraordinarily negative. And, critically, they are unconvinced progress is being made.
For example, in the Pew survey, about three-quarters of adults think that Bush's economic policies either are making the U.S. economy worse (43 percent) or are not having not much effect (31 percent). Just 18 percent say that Bush's policies are making the economy better.
And check out these figures from Gallup asking respondents to compare three years ago-the beginning of Bush's administration-to today (Gallup's analysis also provides January 1992 poll readings on the same questions for comparison purposes):
* Are you better off than you were three years ago? Today, 50 percent
say yes and 42 percent say no. In January 1992, 50 percent said yes
and 38 percent said no.
* Is it easier to buy things than it was three years ago? Today, 41
percent say yes and 46 percent say no. In January 1992, 36 percent
said yes and 51 percent said no.
* Finally, is there more unemployment than there was three years ago?
Today, 77 percent say yes and 16 percent say no. In January 1992, 84
percent said yes and 11 percent said no.
For the Bushies, that's gotta be too close for comfort. And to make things even more anxiety-provoking, today 27 percent say that the U.S. is as respected in the world as three years ago, while 68 percent say that we are not. But in January 1992, things were markedly better: 40 percent said that we were as respected as three years previously, compared to 50 percent who said that we weren't.
Well, as they say, history never repeats itself . . . except when it does.
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