[Barnett Rubin is probably the world's foremost expert on Afghanistan, IMHO. Not only does he know all the facts, all the languages and all the people, he's also got the best theories. IMHO, his book _The Fragmentation of Afghanistan_ is a work of genius.]
[That said, this is his take on current events.]
URL: http://www.iht.com/articles/532396.html
Wednesday, August 04, 2004
The International Herald Tribune
Afghanistan's vote could trigger mayhem
Barnett R. Rubin
The warlords' threat
NEW YORK The decision by President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan to
rebuff Defense Minister Muhammad Qasim Fahim by not naming him as one
of two vice-presidential candidates has transformed the political
landscape of Afghanistan. Unfortunately, the country may not be ready
for this transformation, and the presidential elections may spark
violence.
Afghanistan faces this potential crisis because the Bush
administration insisted on holding Afghan elections before those in
the United States, while for two years it stalled any action to
demobilize its warlord allies. When it belatedly announced plans to
demobilize 40 percent of the warlords' militias before elections, it
could not carry them out.
Karzai made the best choice available under these circumstances. The
political agreement underlying his government required that the
president, an ethnic Pashtun, choose his first deputy from the
political heirs of Ahmed Shah Massoud, the late Tajik commander from
the Panjshir Valley, north of Kabul. Fahim, heir to the command of
Massoud's military forces, has defied the requirement in the
UN-sponsored Bonn agreement that he withdraw his forces from Kabul. He
has led the Northern Alliance, which the United States armed against
the Taliban, in resisting demobilization.
Most Afghans see Fahim as the country's chief warlord. Karzai knew
that allying with Fahim would discredit him and the reform process.
But he felt he could not make this choice without full U.S. support.
Reluctant to abandon even so tainted an ally, the Bush administration
delayed until the last minute.
With difficulty, at the last minute Karzai convinced Ahmed Zia
Massoud, Afghanistan's ambassador to Russia and a brother of the slain
commander, to join his ticket. But the rebuff of Fahim led to a swift,
long-anticipated response. Another major Panjshiri leader, Yunus
Qanooni, now minister of education but formerly Massoud's chief
organizer and logistician, declared his candidacy. Qanooni is
supported by Fahim and the third major leader of the Panjshiri
faction, Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah.
Each major candidate named a multiethnic ticket, but the result is
nonetheless an election with one major presidential candidate from
each major ethnic group: Karzai, a Pashtun; Qanooni, a Tajik; General
Abdul Rashid Dostum, an ethnic Uzbek and former communist militia
leader; and Mohammad Mohaqiq, a Shiite religious leader and commander
from the Hazara ethnic group.
A poll by the International Republican Institute shows Karzai in the
lead in all ethnic groups and regions. But such polls have no track
record in Afghanistan by which to judge their accuracy. More
important, Afghanistan is not yet a country where people can vote
freely.
In the same poll, Afghans named security as their top concern, and
they identified the warlords - whom Karzai has now rebuffed - as the
greatest threat. Hence Afghans are most vulnerable to intimidation and
bribery from the very forces now allied against the president. The
voting may reflect who controls military force and the money from the
drug trade, not whom the Afghan people prefer.
But the pro-Karzai forces may also be tempted by trickery. Elections
will also take place among Afghan refugees in Pakistan and Iran.
Warlords in northern and western Afghanistan may deliver voters to
Qanooni, but Pakistani Pashtuns may swell the Karzai column. The
United Nations and the Afghan government have registered more than
eight million voters in Afghanistan, and Afghans in Iran carry
state-issued identity cards, but neither Afghans in Pakistan nor
Pakistanis have consistent documentation. A senior Panjshiri asked in
Kabul in May, "What will stop Pakistan from inventing 250,000
Pashtuns?"
This election will take place in a country that has never conducted a
presidential election, where the Taliban are assassinating voters and
electoral staff, and where there is no rule of law. If no candidate
receives more than 50 percent of the votes on Oct. 9, the constitution
requires a runoff. Since no one knows how long the first-round vote
count will take, the second round will be held two weeks after the
announcement of the first-round result. During the period immediately
after Oct. 9 when the ballots are counted, there may be violent
protests in a country where all major candidates control armed forces.
The United States, NATO, the United Nations and the European Union
need to deploy security forces and electoral monitors massively,
despite security risks, to assure a minimally fair election in all
three countries where it will be held. They have to tell all firmly to
accept the outcome. And they have to make a credible commitment to
stay in Afghanistan through the second election as well. Otherwise, it
might look bad for President George W. Bush on Election Day. But the
Afghan people will pay the real price.
Barnett R. Rubin, director of studies at New York University's Center
on International Cooperation, is author of "The Fragmentation of
Afghanistan."
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