Yes, revolutions ( punctuations) are rare in history. Most of the time there is circular or evolutionary movement ( equilibrium). Gould and Eldredge ,of course, render Darwin's theory fully dialectical by adding "leaps" ( revolutions, rare and relatively brief as you discuss) to his gradualist evolutionism. The gaps in the fossil record that Darwin notes express the leaps, quantitative change turning into qualitative change, as the old song goes. Lenin ( in an article on Karl Marx) theoretically anticipates Gould and Eldredge's empirical work by mentioning that Darwin's evolutionary theory is partially dialectical, lacking quantum leaps.
As applied to politics and history, punctuated equilibrium is usually termed historical materialism.
Charles
From: "Eubulides"
I'm becoming increasingly interested in the notion of "punctuated equilibrium" as at least a metaphor and perhaps an actual description of political history. Within this context a really serious version of ABB has to regard the Bush Administration as an actual or potential "Punctuation" in the equilibrium of neoliberal capitalism. That is, ABB represents the liberal analogue to that small number of hole-in-the-corner marxists & anarchists who think in terms of "revolution or nothing -- now."
[Digression here. "Punctuations," as Eldredge, Gould, et al use them are brief only in geological terms: i.e., a punctuation might last 45,000+ years. I don't know what the length of a metaphorical punctuation in history would be, but not "overnight."]
Political punctuations are _not_ predictable.
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Economic and biological evolution: A non-equilibrium thermodynamic theory Jing Chen http://www.ecoeco.org/Documents/thermo.pdf
"In general, any economic or biological system, as a dissipative system, is only metastable instead of absolutely stable. Its survival and growth depend crucially on its institutional or biological structure, which may or may not be able to adapt to the changing environment in the course of time. The main theme of economic and biological evolution is the tradeoff between competitiveness of high fixed cost systems in a stable environment and flexibility of low fixed cost systems in a volatile environment. Since there is no dominant strategy in all environments, the beautiful and diverse ecological system does not reach an equilibrium state, even after four billion years of biological evolution. For the same reason, economic organizations and systems will not converge to an equilibrium state."
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