Today, the Green Party of the United States, the third largest party in America but possibly the largest political party in the world, nominated David Cobb (G-TX) for President on the second ballot at their national convention. This means that only David Cobb and his Vice-Presidential candidate, Pat LaMarche (G-ME), will be allowed on any Green Party ballot anywhere in the country. Importantly, Cobb has pledged to run a "safe states" campaign, where he will avoid the 10-15 closest swing states and instead focus on reaching the ballot and campaigning for votes in solid red or solid blue territory. With this strategy and far lower name recognition, Cobb will not be a spoiler. This effectively ends any chance Ralph Nader had to make an impact on the 2004 election. Now, his only route to reaching ballot access is through the Reform party and independent / Republican efforts of his campaign. However, considering his progress to date, do not expect him to have much, if any, success qualifying for ballots. Thus far:
Nader has not achieved ballot access in any state. Even the seven states where the Reform party nomination has supposedly guaranteed his place on the ballot, Colorado, Florida, Kansas, Mississippi, Montana, South Carolina and Texas, are not secured. As I wrote in an earlier article, Nader has almost no funds with which to work. As of May 31st, Nader had $73,412.61 cash on hand, minus around $24,000 in debts. In May alone, he spent $95,000 in Texas, while only raising $189,555 nationally. In 2000, Nader raised over $8,400,000, more than eight times his current total. A strong Democratic effort to keep Nader off the ballot in Arizona seems to be working. Expect such efforts to continue in other states. Nader's activist presence is minimal. His Meetup numbers have grown by less than 200 over the past two months. It is over for Nader. I will personally be stunned if he makes the ballot in twelve states. He does not have the money for a limited national advertising drive like he had in 2000. There will be no Nader "super-rallies" like in 2000, where he regularly drew crowds exceeding 10,000 people. He has no party support. He has nothing.
From now on, no poll that includes Nader should be taken seriously. Libertarian + Constitution now probably poses a larger threat to Bush than Nader + Cobb poses for Kerry. It is time for everyone in the Democratic Blogosphere to relax their sphincters and allow their blood pressure to drop. It is time we started paying Nader the attention he deserves in this campaign--none. To continue complaining about him would border on mental illness.
As for the Green party, they seem to have acquitted themselves nicely. They will probably face some defection over the nomination of Cobb, but if they had endorsed Nader they would have been destroyed. This will render them marginal, but it does show their willingness to compromise with Democrats, which might guarantee their long term survival. Also, as the case of the New Paltz mayor seems to reveal, when they do manage to sneak in an elected official or two, they are principled and willing to fight for progressive causes.
Nader is over, and the Green party is marginal. You can use the thread below to discuss this topic, or as an open thread if you like. Have a very happy Saturday.
3rd Parties :: Sat Jun 26th, 2004 at 06:27:18 PM EST :: Post a Comment (10 comments)
Michael Pugliese