"At this point, all Bush can do is drive up Kerry's negatives, and they'll be successful up to a certain point (hard to avoid the sting of a $200 million negative campaign)."
That's the understatement of the year. Kerry is in serious trouble on the money question if he doesn't raise a lot quick -- or if the 527s end up being kicked out of the race, which the Republicans are trying to do in court right now and by outright intimidation of the networks, trying to get them not to run the MoveOn.org ads about Bush's attempted executive repeal of the eight-hour day (I scarcely exaggerate). And how about when the first ads from the fringes of the Bush camp start appearing, you know, the ones that talk about Willie Horton presiding over Satanic-ritual homosexual marriages while burning the American flag?
The Nader factor is unsettling. I can't imagine he'll actually have numbers like that on election day, especially since he likely won't get on that many ballots this year (unless the Republicans decide to help him do that, which is a distinct possibility). Nevertheless, if he's a contributing factor to a possible Bush win, that SHOULD give people pause about indulging him. Unfortunately, I don't think it will. This is exactly why Nader's behavior has crossed the line from stupid to treacherous.
All of this said, it's impossible to predict at this stage. I will say that this thing will be won in two ways, over the airwaves and on the phones/doors. Bush has a distinct advantage over the airwaves because of money, and it is unlikely that that will change.
- - - - - John Lacny
People of the US, unite and defeat the Bush regime and all its running dogs!