[lbo-talk] 2004 High Turnout and High Percentage for Kerry(Re: No, actually, I don't believe it.

Nathan Newman nathanne at nathannewman.org
Thu Nov 4 22:01:47 PST 2004


----- Original Message ----- From: "Doug Henwood" <dhenwood at panix.com>

Nathan Newman wrote:
>Doug-- You are being inaccurate or at least confusing turnout based on
>"voting age population" versus "voting eligible population."

-I quite deliberately chose VAP rather than VEP as the denominator. As -the Census guy told me when I was doing my Atlas back in 1994, they -use VAP as the denominator because immigrants etc. have to obey laws -and pay taxes, so total pop over 18 is the relevant number.

Since we are discussing the success in mobilizing voters, VAP is a useless number. Why not use the whole US population, including children, since they have to obey laws and pay taxes on any income they make and the 16 and 17-year olds face a possible draft in the next few years?

I am most interested in the success in mobilizing voters to support candidates-- the failure to mobilize non-citizens to cast votes that they can't cast doesn't seem like a particularly interesting number to measure.

Nathan Newman



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