[lbo-talk] Frank on election

[kjkhoo at softhome.net]

At 11:29 am -0800 5/11/04, Adam Souzis wrote:
>In 2000, exit polls broke down the electorate this way: 21% liberal,
>50% moderate, 29% conservative. In 2004, some moderates moved
>rightward: 21% liberal, 45% moderate, 34% conservative. This a large
>and dismaying shift

There may have been no such shift of moderates to conservative.

While the total turnout rate (based on VEP) increased by about 2.6%, 
the turnout for Southern states increased by about 5% and for the 
swing states by about 7%.

So it may well have been that while more liberals came out, even more 
conservatives also came out, and moderates didn't. In CA, total 
turnout dropped by 9%, in WA by 14%, in NY by 2%, etc.

[Data from GMU's elections site, and I guess the numbers for 2004 are 
provisional, as they don't have data for "Total Votes", only for 
"Vote for Highest Office", presumably meaning the counted votes]