The Economist pollsters surveyed 2702 respondents from Sept 6-8 (completely after Convention and Labor Day) and found the race essentially dead even (margin of error +/- 2), with strong disapproval of Bush on job performance and where the country is going: http://www.economist.com/media/pdf/YouGovJ.pdf (Also see Zogby/Wall Street Journal state-by-state polls showing Kerry with a lead in the electoral college: http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=860)
Here are some of the internals:
Suppose the election for President were being held TODAY. Who would you vote for? George W. Bush, the Republican; John F Kerry, the Democrat; Ralph Nader, an independent candidate, or someone else? Total; Def to vote (Last week, Two Weeks ago) George Bush 46% (44, 44); 47% (46, 45) John Kerry 45% (45, 47); 46% (49, 51) Ralph Nader 1% (2, 2); 1% (2, 1) Someone else 3% 2% Would not vote 0% 0% Don't know 5% 3%
As of now, what do you think you are most likely to end up doing on November 2?
(Total, Def to vote) George W Bush 47% 48% John F Kerry 46% 47% Ralph Nader 2% 2% Someone else 4% 3% Not vote at all 1% 0%
In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?
(Total, Def to vote) Satisfied 37% 41% Dissatisfied 57% 57% Don't know 5% 3%
Do you approve or disapprove of the way President George W. Bush is handling his job as president?
(Total, Def to vote) Approve 42% 45% Disapprove 52% 52% Don't know 6% 3%
Who would you prefer to be in control of the CONGRESS after the next election?
(Total, Def to vote) Democrats 44% 46% Republicans 38% 42% Don't Know 18% 12%
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----- Original Message -----
From: mike larkin
Sent: Thursday, September 09, 2004 11:35 AM
Subject: [lbo-talk] New CBS Poll: Bad News For Kerry
"CBS) One week after their convention, the Republican ticket of George W. Bush and Dick Cheney hold a seven-point lead over Democrats John Kerry and John Edwards among registered voters surveyed in a new CBS News poll.
The Republicans' gain in voter support comes about through two changes that appear to have happened at that convention - a major improvement in the President's approval ratings on handling terrorism (already the area where he scored best), and significant negative changes in perceptions of the Democratic nominee."
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/09/09/opinion/polls/main642108.shtml
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