[lbo-talk] Re:banks and bubbles

Frank Scott frank at marin.cc.ca.us
Sun Jan 30 15:26:22 PST 2005


"... Their calculations are based on a continually rising housing market just as much as the buyers.  The risks of an unprecedented crash have not been factored in anywhere..."

it seems they haven't been factored in anywhere, not just re housing...even more critical is the general area of credit with which to buy into that, or any other sector of the market...

housing prices headed for the stratosphere in places like the bay area, but they can be excused by market religionists as simple supply and demand - everybody wants to live "here", demand up, prices up, etc...but it is possible for people to buy into that market even if they haven't a prayer of ever paying for the damned structure, let alone the real estate...

in fact, there is a means of borrowing for a house in which you don't even have to verify your earnings ( something like "estimated income hustle"? doug?), but can merely indicate that you are a professional or other type of allegedly solvent person, and thus pad your earnings "reaistically" enough to get the house-mortgage...yeah, right...

that buy today-pay tomorrow-maybe never aspect strikes me as a "bubble" or whatever term is given to something that could burst, which is much bigger than a high tech spec sector or housing sector ( though at least you can live in a house )...

personal anecdote as evidence of larger "bubble"...my credit rating is very good, just below excellent, and my plastic limit(s) would enable me to run up a bill that is at least ten times what i earn in a year...and this is without the collateral of a physical structure or auto or other machine which can be impounded at time of non-payment...

And this credit level was acheived despite the fact that at an earlier stage of life, i was financially bankrupt..

and i am probably much closer to the rule than the exception... that is a big, big problem, and not just for me...

fs

fs

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