--- Willy Greenfields <filthydirtyunwashed at yahoo.com> wrote:
>
>
<http://www.voanews.com/english/2005-03-08-voa38.cfm>
>
> So what happens next, Chris Doss and Peter Lavelle?
>
BTW although Peter didn't answer, this is what he wrote:
Analysis: Chechen rebel leader killed By Peter Lavelle Published on March 08, 2005 This article was written for UPI - United Press International
MOSCOW, March 8 (UPI) -- Chechen rebel leader Aslan Maskhadov has been slain, a spokesman for Russian forces claimed Tuesday. As one of the two most wanted men in Russia and with a bounty of over $10 million on his head, the Kremlin can claim victory over one of its greatest nemeses. However, it is unclear whether Maskhadov's death will change much in the conflict-ridden republic.
According to the Interfax news agency, military spokesperson Col. Ilya Shabalkin said Tuesday Maskhadov was killed during the course of a "special operation." Shabalkin declined to provide any details of the operation other than Maskhadov had been killed in Tolstoy-Yurt, a village in the northern sector of Chechnya widely believed to be within control of Russian forces.
In a related event, Russian authorities have announced three Chechen rebels were seized before carrying out a large attack planned for today on a regional administration building in Tolstoy-Yurt. The authorities have not made it known if the killing of Maskhadov and the capture of the rebels are related.
After serving in the Soviet military, Maskhadov later became chief of staff of the Chechen army in 1992 after the collapse of the Soviet Union. During what is called the First Chechen War 1994-1996, Maskhadov led the Chechen separatists who fought Russian forces to a humiliating stalemate.
On the back of his popularity as a field commander, Maskhadov won as a successful candidate for the Chechen presidency in 1997. Running against the more radical Shamil Basayev, he promised "to reinforce the independence of the Chechen state." The poll was deemed fair by international monitors. Russian President Boris Yeltsin sent his congratulations to his once bitter opponent, publicly stating that Russia was determined to mend relations with Chechnya while refusing to go as far recognizing Chechnya's claim of independence.
However, Maskhadov's skills as a field commander did not serve him well as president. Chechnya, all but independent from Moscow and ravaged by war, quickly descended into economic chaos and lawlessness. Basayev, once Maskhadov's fellow fighter against the Russia, openly split with Maskhadov and defied his presidential authority.
By 1999 Maskhadov no longer had control over events in Chechnya. Rival warlords, particularly Basayev, had built well-armed networks taken the law into their own hands. Basayev, embolden by a weak government and with a strong following, dealt Maskhadov a political deathblow when his fighters invaded neighboring Dagestan.
That invasion triggered a series of deadly bombing attacks across Russia, the Second Chechen War and the return of Russian military forces into Chechnya. After fierce fighting in Chechnya, the Kremlin dismissed Maskhadov's presidential authority out of hand, calling it "unlawful."
After the start of the second war, Maskhadov was marginalized in Chechen politics. As a militant against the Kremlin's force policies to "normalize" Chechnya, Maskhadov and his small band of fighters continued to attack Russian forces in the republic, claiming some militant acts are "unavoidable" because of Russia's policies.
However, what acts of "terror" Maskhadov and his followers committed or didn't commit no longer was relevant. For the Kremlin, Maskhadov and Basayev were of the same ilk. After a horrific siege at a theater in Moscow in October 2002, Vladimir Putin ruled out talks with what he called "terrorists," including Maskhadov.
Seeking to differentiate himself from Basayev, the organizer behind the Beslan school massacre in September 2004, Maskhadov stated there was "no justification" for the seizure of the school. He added, "I responsibly announce that after the end of the war, individuals guilty of conducting illegal acts, including Shamil Basayev, will be passed to a court of law."
Despite Maskhadov's condemnation of what happened in Beslan, the Kremlin put a $10 million bounty on each man's head.
Maskhadov's violent passage is hardly surprising, but he will be missed. Some and many around the world maintain that the Kremlin should have engaged Maskhadov in a dialogue to find a political solution to the Chechen conflict. For many, in comparison to Basayev, Maskhadov remained somewhat of a moderate.
How Maskhadov's death will impact events on the ground in Chechnya is not immediately clear. The impact Maskhadov had during the last years of his life appears to have been limited at best.
There is no doubt the Kremlin is pleased that one of its "most wanted" has finally been dealt with. However, the Kremlin will also take pause to consider where Maskhadov was killed.
The Chechen village where he was reported to have been killed, has been under control of Russian forces in recent years, suggesting rebel fighters can infiltrate well beyond the usual areas of fighting.
Maskhadov is gone, but the Chechen conflict will certainly continue.
Endnote:
When I wrote the above article, I was not aware of Akhmed Zakayev’s comments, as well as others.
Will there now be a campaign of revenge in the republic following Maskhadov’s death? I never take Zakayev’s words seriously, but in this case there are worth reflecting upon.
Maskhadov certainly claimed to be open to negotiations with the Kremlin. But Maskhadov’s biggest problem has been his inability to deliver. His hopeless time as president during 1997-99 inform serious policymakers that he can only speak for himself and his band of fighters and little more.
I am not an expert on Chechnya, but I have always been wary of viewing Maskhadov as a “moderate.” In light of the truly monstrous Basayev, anyone fighting the Kremlin in Chechnya is in comparison a “moderate.” My sense is that Maskhadov always took advantage of this perceived difference not because he may be a “moderate,” but to strike out at Basayev.
Maskhadov as a “moderate” was always about independence for Chechnya and really nothing more. The idea of an independent Chechnya is not a “moderate” policy consideration of this Kremlin.
Nothing about Maskhadov’s passage saddens me. Nothing about Chechnya recently has anything to do with moderation.
http://www.untimely-thoughts.com/index.html?cat=3&type=3&art=1463
Nu, zayats, pogodi!
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