Saturday, Nov 12, 2005
A coloured revolution fails in Azerbaijan
Vladimir Radyuhin
Pre-emptive strikes by President Aliyev and lukewarm support from the West foil opposition attempts to launch massive protests.
A "coloured revolution" has failed to take off in Azerbaijan in the wake of parliamentary elections.
Clever pre-emptive strikes by President Ilkham Aliyev in combination with lukewarm support from the West have foiled Opposition attempts to launch massive protests similar to those that brought down the government in Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan.
In an effort to re-enact the revolutionary scenarios in those three ex-Soviet states, the Opposition in Azerbaijan claimed to have been robbed of victory in Sunday's poll. According to official returns, President Aliyev's New Azerbaijan Party won 65 seats in the 125-member Parliament, with the Opposition getting less than 10 seats. The rest went to small parties and independent candidates, many of whom support the Government.
Citing numerous irregularities, Western observers said the election "did not meet international standards."
"Forty-three per cent of the ballot counting was bad or very bad," said Council of Europe representative Leo Platvoet. "It's impossible to say that these elections are free and fair."
By contrast, Moscow has thrown its weight behind official election results in Azerbaijan and criticised Western monitors. President Vladimir Putin congratulated Mr. Aliyev on the successful elections. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow had "doubts about the objectivity of the evaluation" made by the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) and the Council of Europe.
The Opposition called on supporters to turn out in the streets of Baku to protest alleged vote rigging. A protest rally on Wednesday drew an estimated 10,000 to 15,000 protesters, far short of the 50,000 the Opposition leaders had hoped for. A day later pro-government parties brought out four times as many people for a rally in Baku in support of President Aliyev. Even as it vowed to organise more protests, the Opposition clearly lacks the will and the muscle to overthrow the Government.
Azerbaijan has therefore broken a pattern of "people's power revolutions" in former Soviet republics orchestrated and bankrolled by the United States. On the one hand, the leaders of the newly independent states have learned some counter-revolution techniques, and, on the other, Washington is demonstrating greater caution in supporting the Opposition.
Masterly blow
In the run-up to the parliamentary poll President Aliyev delivered a masterly blow against the Opposition, accusing its exiled leader, Rasul Guliyev, of plotting a coup, and arresting a dozen top government officials on charges of complicity. The move won extra election points for President Aliyev and discredited the Opposition. The arrested officials, including Economic Development Minister Farkhad Aliyev and his brother, President of Azerbaijan's biggest oil company Azpetrol, Rafik Aliyev, are some of the richest men in Azerbaijan who are known to have grossly abused power to stuff their pockets under President Aliyev's father, Heydar. Analysts said they funded the Opposition in order to weaken the President and make him dependent on their support.
Another factor behind the Opposition defeat in Azerbaijan was Washington's reassessment of "coloured revolutions" in other ex-Soviet states, especially in Kyrgyzstan. The "tulip revolution" in Kyrgyzstan funded and promoted by American non-governmental organisations failed to install a pro-Western regime, but dangerously destabilised one of the poorest Central Asian countries amid the rise of Islamic militancy in the region.
The fear of throwing in turmoil Azerbaijan, which has geostrategic importance for the U.S. as a rich source of oil and gas, forced Washington to back away from supporting an "orange revolution."
While noting that the elections in Azerbaijan did not meet a number of international standards, the U.S. State Department said they "were an improvement over previous elections in some areas." It was after their meeting with the U.S. Ambassador in Azerbajian that the Opposition leaders decided not to stage their protest rally until three days after the vote, when revolutionary fervour had largely dissipated.
Copyright © 2005, The Hindu.