But the opposite scenario seems more likely: short term bitterness at the incorporation of Jerusalem and the larger settlement blocs into Israel, followed eventually by resignation and pressures on the Palestinians to reach a final agreement because of trade, investment, and other commercial considerations, coupled with unrelenting diplomatic pressure from the US and Europeans to recognize Israel and end the state of war. The Israelis would keep East Jerusalem and economic relations as carrots in their pocket until that time. This seems to be the core of the Israeli strategy, which is resonating with its war-weary population and isolating the Netanyahu-led extreme right which clings to the policy of a Greater Israel.
The unsettled situations in Iran and Iraq could vastly complicate matters, however. ------------------------------------ Israel's Next Struggle May Be Internal
Rising Support for Pullback
>From West Bank Presages
Power Shift, Societal Strife
By KARBY LEGGETT
Wall Street Journal
February 13, 2006; Page A6
JERUSALEM -- Nearly four decades after it began, Israel's settlement enterprise in the West Bank appears to be in retreat, carrying enormous implications for Israel and the region.
When Yossi Etkin plunked down $140,000 on a villa in the West Bank settlement of Naale six years ago, he believed he and his wife would live out their retirement there. Today, the 44-year-old businessman wants the Israeli government to buy him out -- and cede the land to the Palestinians. "It's clear I am not going to end my life in Naale," Mr. Etkin says. "So I want the government to take my family out now."
Mr. Etkin's turnabout reflects a wider swing in Israeli public opinion. For the first time since 1967, when Israel captured the West Bank and Gaza Strip, a strong majority of Israelis favors pulling back from the West Bank and carving a semipermanent border. That promises to deepen a schism between secular and religious citizens, and many here fear a period of prolonged internal strife could ensue. Israel's simultaneous imposition of its preferred boundaries, meanwhile, could invite enmity from Arabs that would negate any positive sentiment that might result from ceding territory.
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon galvanized the so-called unilateralists -- a growing demographic that includes political moderates, conservatives, peaceniks and ever-more settlers -- with his decision to evacuate Jewish settlements in Gaza last year. Now comatose in a hospital following a massive stroke last month, Mr. Sharon was a champion of Jewish settlement for decades before reversing course in Gaza. But with his passing from the political scene -- Mr. Sharon was in critical but stable condition following emergency stomach surgery during the weekend -- the settler movement seems unlikely to find a similarly powerful advocate.
Meanwhile, unilateralists' influence -- symbolized by strong public support for the Kadima Party Mr. Sharon established shortly before his stroke -- continues to grow. Born not long after the collapse of peace talks, this broad political grouping almost universally supported the Gaza pullout. The unilateralists were instrumental in building political support for the security fence separating Israel from the West Bank. The recent victory in Palestinian parliamentary elections by Hamas, the militant Islamist organization, has drawn more supporters of separation amid fear that a negotiated two-state solution is impossible with Hamas overseeing the Palestinian government.
In Israel's parliamentary election March 28, this push for unilateral action is expected to be enshrined as the nation's official political mantra. Two of the three biggest parties -- Kadima, now headed by Ehud Olmert, and Labor -- openly embrace the concept, as do small left-wing parties. Though Likud -- the third-largest party according to recent voter polls -- rejects unilateral territorial concessions, the removal of West Bank settlements and outposts is almost certain to be part of the next government's mandate, political analysts say.
"The overall trend is that these settlements are going down, one way or another," says Gadi Wolfsfeld, a political-science professor at Hebrew University.
There already are signs of tumult. Last month, 200 people were seriously injured when settlers clashed with Israeli police and military during an operation to destroy nine homes built illegally by settlers. With unilateralists calling to evacuate potentially tens of thousands of established settlers, such unrest could become a recurring problem.
In the near term, a West Bank withdrawal could help ease tensions with the Palestinians -- and bolster Hamas's standing at home and abroad. Last year, Hamas claimed credit for pushing Israel out of Gaza with its attacks and suicide bombings. Since winning a majority, Hamas now wants to focus on its promises of government overhauls and economic security.
An Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank could let Hamas do that while claiming credit for Israel's retreat. If Hamas maintains its current decision to halt attacks on Israel, it also could prompt some countries to open a dialogue with the group. The first sign of such a dynamic emerged last week when Russian President Vladimir Putin invited Hamas leaders to Moscow for talks.
Longer-term, however, a unilateral pullback seems likely to fuel tension with the Palestinians and the wider Arab world. Leaders of Hamas, for instance, demand that Israel return to its 1967 borders and relinquish East Jerusalem before negotiations over the future can be held. Under the unilateralists' vision, Israel will maintain indefinite control of Jerusalem and large settlement blocks, including those along the Jordan River valley. With Islamist groups in political ascendancy across the region, analysts both here and abroad fear a violent backlash that would complicate U.S. plans to pacify the region.
The U.S. has voiced support for further land concessions by Israel, but says many issues -- including final borders -- require negotiation with the Palestinians.
But in Israel, unilateralism is so widely embraced that some settlement leaders have shifted tactics in recent months. Rather than talk about expanding West Bank settlements, they focus on influencing the debate over which ones will stay. "We want to remain a part of Israeli society," says Shaul Goldstein, a leader of the settler movement. "So we will adjust to this new reality."
Others are doing all they can to make withdrawal a reality. After winning a landmark court case that led to the destruction of the nine illegal homes last month, peace activist Dror Etkes is gearing up for a major legal campaign that he says could force the government to evacuate dozens of outposts and settlements in the coming years.
That is what Mr. Etkin, the businessman from the Naale settlement, hopes will happen. A father of three children, Mr. Etkin says he once believed Israel would be able to make peace with the Palestinians and hold onto the majority of Jewish settlements. With hope for peace now remote, Mr. Etkin says he believes Israel's West Bank security barrier eventually will become the border between Israel and the Palestinians. Says Mr. Etkin: "We see what's happening and we don't want to wait. We want to go now."