Hamas's stunning victory has been described as a "sweeping victory." However, the lopsided "wide margin" in the Palestinian Parliament is largely the result of an electoral system that is even more disproportionate than the US or Canadian First-Past-The-Post system, rather than a overwhelming
The Palestinian system featured two tiers (1) multi-member districts and (2) a national proportional list. The multi-member districts reward parties with greater discipline and punish ticket- splitting. More than 100 Fatah members ran as independents and there were several smaller lists which appealed to Fatah voters.
The system was designed to benefit Fatah but it ended up helping Hamas.
Hamas has won apparently 76 seats, Fatah 43, and other parties and independents 13.
Looking at the actual votes on the nationalist, shows a relatively close division of opinion.
Here are the national proportional results
Hamas 434,817 (30 seats)
Fatah Movement 403,458 (27 seats)
Martyr Abu Ali Mustafa (PFLP) 41,671 (3 seats)
The Alternative 28,779 (coalition of the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP), the Palestinian People's Party, and the Palestinian Democratic Union Party) (2 seats)
Independent Palestine (Mustafa Barghouti) 26,554 (2 seats)
The Third Way 23,513 ( 2 seats)
(Doesn't include votes for list that didn't make the threshold.)
Among other things this means that the exit polls were not that wrong. The difference between the predicted narrow Fatah victory and the actual Hamas victory was not that great.
It may also explain why Fatah is eager to go into opposition.
Stuart Elliott
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