In its careful study of a military strategy for defense, conducted in full cognizance of the movement's weakness and strength and of Israel's weakness and strength, Hezbollah has achieved what all Arab states have failed to achieve. Since the war broke out, Hassan Nasrallah has displayed a persona and public behavior also to the exact opposite of Arab heads of states, he may be in the "underground" for security reasons, but he is not discheveled, he speaks in a cautious, calculated calm, a quiet dignity. His adresses have been punctuated with key notions that have long lapsed from the everyday political vocabulary in the Arab world: responsibility (for defeat, victory and the toll on Lebanon), dignity, justice, compassion (for the suffering inflicted on people and for the Palestinian Israeli victims of Hezbollah shelling in Nazareth and Haifa). A stark contrast with the political class in the Arab world that speaks of "calculated retreats", "compromises for peace", and the real politik convictions that induce Amr Moussa to cast himself as the gesticulating pantomime for the Saudis and the Americans. In an interview with al-Jazira, Ahmad Fouad Najm, the famous Egyptian popular poet quoted a Cairene street sweeper who said to him that Hassan Nasrallah brought back to life the dead man buried inside him.
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THIS "siege note" is extraordinary and holds a wealth of vital insights.
I'd like to focus on the above quoted excerpt which, I think, efficiently conveys a remarkable amount of information about Hezbollah's tactical and perceptual impact.
Clearly, the IDF underestimated Hezbollah's strategic capabilities and also, its understanding of the Israeli arsenal.
What do I mean when by "understanding"?
Here's a quote from a letter Dennis Perrin posted to his blog yesterday:
"The security apparatus of Hezbollah was also impressive, underscoring the identity of Hezbollah. They were all affable, welcoming, dressed casually and unarmed. They all held walkie-talkies, and when looming danger of another Israeli air strike seemed tangible, they all ushered the group of some 30 (and more) journalists to clear the area. They issued their warnings calmly and confidently."
[...]
full -
<http://redstateson.blogspot.com/2006/07/cluster-fuck.html>
A careful reading suggests Hezbollah has the capability to track Israeli aircraft movement (perhaps via ground observation or radar or some other means). And not only track movement, but determine course, heading and speed.
How might they be able to do this?
If, for example, you know Israel deploys Lockheed F-18s, you can develop defensive counter-measures to that weapon system by studying Jane's Defense publications, Lockheed sales brochures, military geek blogs, air show publicity glossies and real-world combat experience, among other sources.
Although you have no F-18s of your own to field, your understanding of their range, weapons-load and known limitations can be used to determine the best method for minimizing their battlefield impact. So, if a spotter sights a squadron of F-18s headed in the direction of a team at a particular location (and you know the group's there because of your excellent command and control system) you can alert your comrades that, in approximately X amount of time, they should expect the arrival of Israeli aircraft type Y.
Much has been written about Hezbollah's combat effectiveness. Today, for example, we learn that an area declared to be pacified by the IDF only 12 or so hours ago has, in fact, been the scene of a significant setback:
14 Israeli troops killed by Hezbollah
By SAM F. GHATTAS, Associated Press Writer
Wed Jul 26, 9:31 AM ET
BEIRUT, Lebanon - Hezbollah inflicted heavy casualties on Israeli troops as they battled for a key hilltop town in southern Lebanon for a fourth day Wednesday, with as many as 14 soldiers reported killed. Lebanese officials, meanwhile, confirmed that four U.N. observers were killed by an Israeli airstrike on their post Tuesday night.
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full -
<http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060726/ap_on_re_mi_ea/lebanon_israel_462>
Of course, this is an important part of the unfolding disaster. What's being overlooked however - or only mentioned here and there by people such as the seige letter's composer - is Hezbollah's organizational revolution.
Everyday the depth of their command and control sophistication becomes more apparent.
Undoubtedly, this knowledge won't stay within Hezbollah. Just as we've seen a migration of Iraqi style tactics to Afghanistan (for ex. car bombs as anti-personnel weapons, remote fired mortars, cell phone bombs, fire and move assaults by RPG and AK47 teams on American, NATO and Karzai allied Afghan forces) the obvious success of Hezbollah techniques in
halting the Israeli advance and frustrating their plans will inspire others to adopt - with varying amounts of skill and aplomb, not everyone is a Nasrallah - the same methods.
Indeed, it looks as if the United States and Israel have entered a new phase - one in which their irregular opponents make increasing use of the global telecommunications grid to rapidly adapt the style of their resistance.
In the end, it really doesn't matter whether or not the American Left supports or despises these movements. They are an organic reaction to the actions of Washington and Tel Aviv and will evolve along their own path producing both fair and foul results.
We are irrelevant except to the extent we can pressure our governments to desist.
.d.
--------- She loves penicillin...and compromise. She's going to go for it
...................... http://monroelab.net/blog/