By Sudha Ramachandran
BANGALORE - Indian leftist parties are expected to press their demands, particularly on foreign policy and economic issues, after resounding state election victories, though it's unlikely they will try to pull the rug out from under the country's coalition government.
They captured two of five Indian states that went to the polls in the past month: a landslide victory in West Bengal, winning 235 of 293 constituencies to gain their seventh consecutive term, and a convincing win in Kerala, where they wrested control from the Congress party-led coalition, winning 98 of the 140 seats in the state assembly.
But while this should translate into the left being more assertive in its demands for concessions, there appears no will to inflict fatal wounds on the central government coalition.
Meanwhile, apart from the landslide victory of Congress party leader Sonia Gandhi in parliamentary by-elections and its significant performance in Tamil Nadu, where it could be back in government for the first time since 1967, the Congress on the face of it has little to smile about. It will head the government in the tiny, politically insignificant state of Pondicherry, while in Assam, while it might return to power, it can do so only with the support of others. The Congress appears to have lost the support of Muslims.
Compounding Congress concerns is the likely fallout of the left's stunning performance. There are elements of the Congress that are anxious that the left will flex its muscles in the running of the federal government in wake of its success at the polls.
In 2004, India's leftist parties agreed to extend support to the 15-party Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government on the basis of a Common Minimum Program (CMP), which outlines the minimum objectives of a coalition government. With 61 members in the 545-seat Lok Sabha (the lower house of parliament), the left has provided the government crucial support from outside the coalition.
The left, however, has been unhappy with the UPA's alleged violation of the CMP on foreign and economic issues. It has locked horns with the government on what it sees as an excessive tilt toward the United States and its position on the Iran nuclear crisis. It has opposed steps the government has taken to liberalize the financial sector and bring in foreign direct investment in the banking sector and in retail trade, as well as disinvestment measures in the public sector.
Over the past two years, leftist leaders have frequently expressed unhappiness with the UPA. They have issued statements, criticized the government in parliament and on the streets, suspended participation in UPA coordination committee meetings (set up to iron out differences among allies) and mobilized public opinion through strikes.
Still, they barked but did not bite. But that could change, warn political observers. Reports in the media suggest the massive mandate the left has received could encourage it to be more assertive, even aggressive.
"The assembly results have strengthened the role of the left parties at the national level," Prakash Karat, general secretary of the Communist Party of India (Marxist), said even before counting of votes began on Thursday. "We will increase our pressure on the UPA government to implement the pro-people provisions in the CMP."
That was the left's theme throughout the election campaign.
The left is clearly raring to go and ready with its wish list. Among its demands are scrapping of the Pension Reforms Bill and a rethink on the proposed sale of 49% of government shares in the profit-making public-sector Bharat Aluminium Co to private players.
There are also issues on the foreign-policy front. The left is still smarting from the government's refusal to heed its call for review of its pro-US foreign policy. Despite its threats to the government not to vote against Iran in the International Atomic Energy Agency, the government went ahead and voted with the US not once but twice, referring Iran to the United Nations Security Council.
The left is also upset with the UPA government's silence on the US-European Union-Israel financial blockade of the Palestinians. It will now push the government to extend concrete assistance to Palestine. It is expected to demand more forcefully that India correct its excessive tilt to the US.
But how the left is going to push the government, beyond routine barking, remains to be seen.
Political analysts believe the left is unlikely to withdraw support of the government. C P Bhambri, professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, said although the statements of leftist leaders reflect strong opposition to the government's economic policies, he does "not see any possibility of their pulling down the government".
The left's main concern is that a fall of the Congress-led government in New Delhi could result in the return of its greater foe, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Bhambri told Indo-Asian News Service.
Some even suggest that far from making the Congress-led coalition government vulnerable to leftist pressure, the leftist landslide could strengthen the government. "Their thumping wins in the two states would prod the left parties to overcome all their hitherto doubts and conclude that supporting the Congress at the center on the secular political plank does not necessarily hurt them in their back yards," K Subrahmanya wrote in the Deccan Herald.
Within the UPA coalition too the election results seem to have strengthened the Congress's hand. The Dravida Munetra Kazhagam (DMK, a constituent of the UPA coalition), which won in Tamil Nadu but with insufficient seats to form a government on its own, will have to form a coalition government in the state. The Congress will either be a part of this government or at least extend support from outside.
"What has emerged is an interlocking political arrangement between the Congress and the DMK," Subrahmanya pointed out. "If the Congress requires the DMK for sustaining its UPA government at the center, the DMK requires the Congress to sustain the prospective Democratic Progressive Alliance government in Tamil Nadu."
Some have suggested that the left would seek to twist the UPA's arm by stepping up efforts to bring together a third front (or a "third alternative" as the left prefers to describe it) that would challenge the Congress and the BJP in the next general elections.
But Bhambri argues that the increased proximity between the DMK (a potential third-fronter) and the Congress would make the left "think twice" before deciding to part ways with the UPA.
An important factor that will moderate leftist pressure on the government's economic policy is that its economic-reform program in West Bengal helped it to widen its support base. Urban youth and the upper middle class have in this election embraced the left. The left will be reluctant to alienate this constituency, as it played a role in the landslide win.
Also the verdict from West Bengal indicates economic reforms the Left Front government under Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharya undertook have brought it urban votes, while not sacrificing rural votes. This, hope reformists, should persuade the left to temper its pressure on the UPA's economic policy.
Bhattacharya's contribution to the leftist victory is likely to enhance his influence and stature in the party, but whether he can win over the party hardline ideologues remains to be seen. The Congress will have to concede some ground to the left on economic issues, but this, if the Bhattacharya magic works, might not be as much as initially feared.
And change will come in foreign policy.
The rethink is likely to come not so much because the left will demand it but because of electoral compulsions. Voting patterns in all the states that went to the polls indicate Muslims did not back the Congress as they have in the past. In Kerala, for instance, the left has made significant inroads in the Muslim-dominated northern Kerala constituencies that have always voted for the Muslim League, an ally of Congress.
Muslim anxieties over the Congress's pro-US policies and the left-sustained anti-US campaign before and during the elections have cost the Congress dearly, and the party will seek to win them back.
Sudha Ramachandran is an independent journalist/researcher based in Bangalore.
(Copyright 2006 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved.)
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